Bitcoin struggles to gain momentum under the $90,000 level. Yet it still holds above $86,000. This reflects a market indecisive. Prices have narrowed to a small range and neither buyers nor vendors are able assert control.
The current market environment is marked by apathy as volatility has decreased. An increasing number of analysts openly discuss the possibility that a larger bear phase may be approaching.
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Although price is the focus of headlines, data from the blockchain suggests that there’s a bigger battle going on below the surface. Burak Keselci from CryptoQuant says that Bitcoin’s current position can’t be understood solely by the price.
The focus is now on the costs of major market players, namely whales, Binance Spot users, and their cost bases. The most important level is still significantly higher than the current Bitcoin price of $87,000.
The average cost base of whales (defined as coin holders who have coins older than 155days) is around $100,000. This is a crucial break-even point for players that have recently entered the market.
Every step towards $100,000 is therefore of greater significance. This level could either trigger distributionIf confidence is restored, the whales may be attempting to safeguard their capital or they could mark a new beginning of accumulation.
Bitcoin real support and resistance mapped by cost basis data
Cost basis data provides a better framework to understand market risks. Cost basis is near $56,000 for Binance users. This is the level that represents the highest concentration of volume on the spot market. “deep water” zone if conditions deteriorate.
It is more important to test the long-term stability of $56K than it would be a level for short-term trading.
Whale positioning over a long period of time is also important. Cost basis of whales that hold Bitcoin more than 155 day is around $40.000. These participants still have profits in excess of 2x even after recent correction.
This profit cushion is one of the reasons for recent gains. The current price is a good exit for many long-term investors, and this increases the motivation to spread into strength instead of aggressively accumulate.
The data, when taken together, reframes the Bitcoin market structure. Short-term, the key ceiling is still near $100,000. This is where more recent whales are approaching breakeven. Supply tends to rise. In the negative, the $56,000 mark is where confidence in the spot market would be the most seriously tested.
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Bitcoin consolidates above key weekly support as momentum cools
Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp pullback from the $120,000–$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. The broader upward trend from 2024 is still intact but recent price movement signals a slowing of momentum. The market is moving from an aggressive expansion phase to one of corrective consolidation, and volatility has been compressed around the critical support area.
Technically, Bitcoin has held just above its medium-term rising moving average which acted as dynamic resistance throughout this bullcycle. It was a clear loss of control over the price, as Bitcoin’s rejection at $110,000 indicated. However, it has not been able to regain that level quickly. Price remains above long-term average. This confirms that it is not yet confirmed to be a trend change, but rather a corrective move within a bigger trend.
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This interpretation is supported by volume dynamics. Initially, the selling pressure was greater. However, recent weeks have seen a decline in volume. The price has stabilized between $86,000 and $90,00,000. It is clear that sellers are exhausted, yet buyers still haven’t stepped up with confidence.
Structurally, the $86,000–$88,000 range is pivotal. The higher timeframe structure will remain bullish if this range is held. The downside would be exposed by a clean breakdown. A recovery over $95,000 is needed to reinsert the bullish trend and open up the road towards prior highs.
Chart from TradingView.com, image from ChatGPT
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
