Although XRP has fallen by 64% in the past year from its high of July 20,25, several technical and onchain indicators had suggested that the altcoin could be set for a recovery. “strong price rebound.”
The key takeaways
- XRP’s MVRV fell to -47 percent, a historical level associated with strong market rebounds.
- XRP Ledger spikes in transaction volume suggest a rising level of network activity, and a macro-price floor around $1.30 to $1.50.
- XRP’s bullish rising wedge pattern predicts a price breakout of 134% to $3.10.
MVRV Ratio: XRP has a ratio of xrp to mvvv “extreme undervalued” zone
XRP’s Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which is the market cap divided the realized cap has fallen to levels that historically have been aligned with market bottoms and accumulation zones.
This chart shows XRP’s 30-day MVRV is now at -47%. Its lowest level since Dec 2020.
Related: XRP price risks 50% drop despite 9-day ETF inflow streak
Fear and frustration are common amongst investors. “reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds,” onchain data provider Santiment said In a post published on Tuesday, X added:
“Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current level an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP. “
Source: Santiment. Source: Santiment
The MVRV tends to be negative when the retail trader has given up. In these conditions, even small positive catalysts are possible. trigger strong rallies.
Although weak MVRV measurements alone are not enough to guarantee complete trends shifts, “often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside,” Santiment is added.
Glassnode’s data indicates that XRP MVRV is nearing zero. Data shows this level has historically been associated with accumulation zones or market bottoms.
Price vs. XRP Z-score. Glassnode
Last time XRP MVRV Z score fell to similar levels, in late 2024. It coincided with a bottom of the macro-market at $0.30. Then, a 500% rise to a multiple-year high beyond $3. Gains were 215 %, 94% & 1,050% respectively in 2023, 2022, 2021.
Analyst: XRP Price “creating stable macro floor”
The XRP Ledger experienced a spike in the volume of transactions during April. This suggests that “deep ecosystem activity and accumulation are quietly building beneath the surface,” CryptoQuant Analyst TopNotchYJ said In a quick Monday note.
“Massive, vertical spikes in transaction counts serve as early network leading indicators, predating explosive price expansions,” The analyst also added.
A surge in the number of transactions from November 2019 to 2021 (from $0.15 up to $1.79, or nearly 1,200%) preceded this rally. The same dynamic was seen in 2024 when the cycle peaked at $3.17 from $0.50 in mid-2025, after a 600% gain.
XRP has been consolidating in the cryptocurrency market. crucial $1.30–$1.50 accumulation zone, The massive spikes in the network suggest the price to be “creating a stable macro floor,” “The analyst stated, adding”
“If history repeats and this current consolidation solidifies into a launchpad, a conservative 5x macro projection positions XRP’s next major target area between $7.50 and $8.00.”
XRP Ledger transactions count. Source: CryptoQuant
Cointelegraph reportedOther XRP Ledger metrics such as whale wallet records and monthly transactions suggest that the XRP/USD pairing was primed for a strong upward move.
Breakout targets for XRP’s falling wedge are $3.10
XRP is currently trading in a pattern of a falling wedge on the weekly graph, a formation that’s typically used to indicate a bullish reversal after a long downtrend.
Since July 2025 the price has compressed between two trendlines descending, the lower limit now serving as a key support at the psychological $1.30 level.
XRP/USD Weekly Chart Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The relative strength index has also recovered from the oversold condition, indicating that buyers are losing their momentum. In the past, similar RSI levels have been associated with strong rebounds of XRP.
XRP, for example rose up to 660% from July 2024 until December 2024 after the RSI recovered from near-oversold conditions. Gains were as high as 95% by mid-2022.
If the upper trendline of the wedge is confirmed to be at $1.50, it could lead to a move towards the target measured by the chart pattern. This would be $3.1, or 134% higher than the current price.
Cointelegraph reportedBuyers will need to sustain and break the price of XRP above the resistance zone between $1.40 and $1.60 on the daily graph to confirm the long-term shift.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
