Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency that threatens to take over the world, has been dubbed a “disruptor”. “purge further” As realized losses for the bear market of 2026 fail to surpass records.
Important points
- Bitcoin’s realized losses are still below the total of 2022 despite the market capital being greater.
- The history suggests that another round of capitulation is needed before the bear market bottoms out.
- Investors still have faith in retail investors “remarkably high” despite new macro lows.
Bitcoin bear market bottom may need “a few more months”
New data CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics platform, shows that the investor capitulation levels have not reached the same level as the bear market of 2022.
“Realized losses are calculated in USD, so logic would dictate that with similar behavior, USD losses during bear markets should be increasingly significant given that market capitalization keeps growing,” Contributor Darkfost posted a message on X.
Realized losses refer to coins moving onchain at a lower price compared to their previous transaction — a telltale sign that an investor is selling their holdings at a loss.
Such realized losses reached $211 billion in the bear market of 2022, a record. The Bitcoin market capitalization is higher this year, but it has not yet surpassed the record.
“Today, since the October top, approximately $174B in losses have already been realized,” Darkfost continued.
Bitcoin bear market loss realized comparison. Source: Darkfost/X
Already, the current bear market is different from previous ones.
In order to preserve historical patterns, a new round of market exits could occur.
“This may suggest that the market could purge further, although this remains fairly subjective,” Darkfost is concluded.
“If the bear market were to extend a few more months, it is possible that we could surpass the 2023 losses, but for now we have not yet reached that level, even though this bear market is already well advanced.”
Retail optimism suggests the BTC floor price is still not set
The investor participation rate in 2026 will be different than previous bear markets.
Related: Bitcoin needs one more thing to happen to spark BTC price ‘rally:’ Analysis
Ardi, a commentator as well as a trader. notesRetail investors try to capture a knife falling, by entering and exiting the market while it continues to fall. In contrast, institutions have been selling relief bounces and offloading the supply to retail.
“Retail has spent months buying every ‘dip’ the market has given them, thinking the bottom was being handed to them on a silver platter. Mid-sized and institutional participants have spent that same period selling into their hopium,” Ardi explains on Sunday.
“The people with the least capital are absorbing supply from the people with the most. That is not usually how major bottoms are built.”
BTC/USDT One-day chart with Order-Book Data Source: Ardi/X
Ardi described “remarkably high” Retail traders’ confidence, along with realized loss figures, raises questions about the reliability of current BTC prices as bear market bottoms.
“Until that dynamic changes, it’s difficult to argue that true capitulation has occurred,” He added.
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
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Source: cointelegraph.com
