In June, Bitcoin’s price has started off with a bumpy start. Prices are down by 50% since the peak of the market. Only in the last seven days, Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 16%. It is now trading at around $60,000. This marks the first time it has been below $60,000 since February.
Notably, this heavy loss in market value coincides with the Bitcoin Treasury Strategy’s decision to sell $2.5 Million worth of BTC, in order to maintain its balance sheet. “never sell”. Moreover the upcoming IPO by Elon Musk’s SpaceX has gained much momentum in the current market as a positive investment. Using the relevant data from the on-chain, the market analyst Rafael with the X name n3ocortex has shown a range of prices at the bottom end in the current downward trend.
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History Supports Possible Dip to $35,000 before Recovery
Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 24% since early May after failing to surpass the $82,000 mark. In order to perform analytic tasks, it is necessary that you have a good understanding of the underlying mathematics. in-depth on-chain analysisRafael revealed that the recent price decline of the asset had driven prices below median holders’ break-even levels for the first since May 2022. Bitcoin is also below its 200WMA and has been exposed to the deeper, more important cost-basis. Cumulative Value Days Destroyed – valued at $46200 – is used as a base to determine long term market bottoms.
Where are you? #Bitcoin bottom?$BTC The price has dropped to $62K. This is nearly half of its ATH, and 24% lower in a single month.
Now that the price is at the highest level of our framework for pricing, it has moved into the group of valuation levels in which past cycles had found their lowest point.
— Rafael (@n3ocortex) June 5, 2026
Rafael claims that the previous lows in the market have been between 1,05x and 1,18x of the CVDD. Based on the historical standards, the higher-than-average market bottom area for Bitcoin will likely be between $46,000 to $54,000. On the other hand, a worst-case scenario points to a bottom between $35,000 – $40,000. In order to put things in perspective, Bitcoin entered the deeper zone of this market only on less than 3 percent of trading days this market cycle.
Rafael points out, too, that Bitcoin’s drawdowns in cycles have shrunk from 85% to 77% the year before, and then down to roughly 50% the cycle after. This trend in market maturity does not exclude the possibility that Bitcoin could revisit a scenario of capitulation, but the majority of evidence supports the current higher range bottom zone.
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Bitcoin Market Overview
Bitcoin was trading at $65,537 as of press time. That represents a drop of 4.7% over the past 24 hour. Daily trading volume has fallen by 4.69%, to $1.21 billion.
Rafael also revealed the Balanced Price ($40,000), the Delta Price ($35,000), as well as the CVDD. The analyst says that in order to reestablish bullish intentions for a recovery Bitcoin needs to reclaim its price range between $75,000-$78,000. The convergence point of the True Market Average, STH Cost Basis, and the 200DMA.
Featured Image from Shutterstock. Chart by Tradingview
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
