The XRP price keeps dropping despite Ripple’s announcements: Could $2 be next?

The key takeaways:

• XRP dropped over 9% following Ripple Swell and extended its losing streak in November.

• The bear flag and the looming Death Cross point towards a potential drop to $1.65.

The XRP currency (XRPThe value of Ripple has dropped sharply since the Swell Conference, wiping out much of the rally experienced during the conference.

Bulls XRP are not impressed by Swell’s announcements

After peaked near $2.40 in November, XRP dropped over 9% to $2.19. This is despite Ripple’s public announcements.

This year’s Swell, held Nov. 4–5 in New York, saw the company unveiling a $500 million funding round Citadel Securities, Fortress Investment Group and other companies have outlined new initiatives for integration. RLUSD stablecoin, as well as teasing a protocol for decentralized lending on the XRP Ledger.

XRP is down again in terms of price, a familiar phenomenon “buy the rumor, sell the news” Ripple’s annual showcase has been accompanied by a dynamic.

Related: XRP whales cap selling as wallet growth hits 8-month high

Since 2020, XRP is showing negative returns for 4 of 5 years between Swell events (vertical lines blue in the graph below) and the year end, indicating that the hype fades more quickly than it was reported.

XRP, as well as other altcoins have been cooled by the recent drop of Bitcoin below $100,000, amid equity market volatility and tightening US liquidity.

Death cross of XRP hints at a decline below $2

XRP’s recent breakdown confirmed a classic continuation bear flag setup. This was further strengthened by an imminent death cross when the exponential moving average (EMA), 50 periods, fell below the 200 period EMA.

A bear flag formed following XRP’s steep drop in price from about $3.60 early September. It was then followed by a narrow channel of consolidation slanting toward $2.60.

Sellers are taking control of the situation if they can successfully reject the upper flag boundary, and then breach the lower.

XRP falling toward the $1.65–$1.70 range is now possible, aligning with the bear flag’s measured move target and April support.

XRP’s total realized price is the closest match to the projected target downside, according Glassnode data.

This is the average of all wallet cohorts’ onchain costs. Therefore, a retest might mark an important value zone that long-term holders have traditionally accumulated.

A convergence of this kind often serves as both a psychological floor and a technical one, which limits the downside.

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.