Watch These Bitcoin Price Triggers as September Volatility Starts

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the weakest month of the year with new local lows and predictions of more BTC price downside.

• Bitcoin falls to $107270 at the start of the week before bouncing back as volatility increases.

• US Labor Day keeps traders on their toes about how the markets will respond to new US tariff chaos.

• Peter Schiff, a gold enthusiast, believes that the future of crypto will not be bullish.

• As August’s ETF withdrawals reach $750,000,000, Bitcoin institutional interests are starting to show price weakness.

• September is traditionally bad news for Bitcoin bulls — will this year be different?

Traders retain sub-$100,000 BTC price targets

Bitcoin began the week by setting new local lows at $107,270, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

The pair then bounced back up to $110,000. This volatility is typical of weekend trading and holidays with low volumes.

Among traders, the mood is tense: some are waiting for a more convincing floor, and even see $100,000 support coming in for a retest.

Other traders are aiming for upside liquidity in exchange order books. With the market overwhelmingly short, a “squeeze” to target those positions is increasingly of interest.

$BTC supports

Above the 92k extreme target, these are the supports I´m seeing for Bitty.

I doubt it will slice through all of these, that would be totally surprising for me and what I´m expecting.

The bulls need to step up quickly. pic.twitter.com/4oxtd95EJr

— Lourenço VS (@lourenco_vs) September 1, 2025

“Short liquidations are stacking between $112k – $115k,” popular trader CrypNuevo confirmed in a thread on X Sunday.

CrypNuevo predicted correctly a fall to the zone of $107,200 based on available bid liquidity.

“If this turns into a deeper pullback, I’d expect $100k to get hit since it’s a psychological level,” “, he said. 

“As price dropped, a lot of long orders would stack at $100k and a wick lower to $94k would make sense to hit their SL & liquidations and to fill the downside small CME gap there.”

CrypNuevo nonetheless described current lows as a “deviation,” eyeing another CME gap at $117,000.

Data from CoinGlass shows the $110,000 zone as a popular one, with price eating into a chunk of overhead liquidity with its Monday reversal.

Tariff woes preclude key US jobs numbers

US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, leaving traders to wait until Tuesday to assess the impact of recent confusion over the government’s international trade tariffs.

Last week a federal court ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority in the application of tariffs. This left arrangements in flux.

It was announced just after the futures market had closed, which sparked an immediate reaction.

Trump subsequently signalled that he would fight to keep the tariffs in place, warning the US would otherwise become a “third world nation.”

With volatility already overdue, risk-asset traders will also monitor the week’s macroeconomic data in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

Unemployment claims are of key interest this week, as the Fed juggles a combination of resurgent inflation markers and weakening labor-market cues.

“It’s all about the labor market this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X thread.

“This will mark the last week of labor market data before the big September Fed meeting.”

Markets are confident the September 17th meeting will result in the first rate reduction. This would enable liquidity to move into risky assets.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the odds of a 0.25% cut at over 90% Monday.

“After cutting rates by 1.0% in late 2024, the Fed has been on hold for the past eight months, trading firm Mosaic Asset summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

The Fed may not be able to cut rates as far as it would like if the inflation rate remains high.

Gold challenges all-time highs while Bitcoin sags

While Bitcoin and altcoins stall, one safe-haven is outperforming in a manner reminiscent of earlier in 2025.

Gold price reached $3,489 per ounce Monday, now just inches from all-time highs seen on April 22.

At the time, Bitcoin was recovering from a trip to sub-$75,000 lows, and on the day of gold’s new record itself jumped 6.7% to close near $93,500.

Kobeissi noted unusual weekend trading activity on XAU/USD, which surged into the weekly close and continued into Labor Day.

Gold on a casual Sunday night on a 3-day weekend:

Rate cuts are coming into 3%+ inflation. pic.twitter.com/ZTOopKVte2

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 1, 2025

“Upside inflation surprises may frustrate the Fed, but it could be a huge catalyst for the next uptrend phase in gold prices,” Mosaic Asset continued.

Mosaic reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index print from last week had cemented gold’s latest recovery.

“That’s happening as gold’s historical seasonality is becoming more of a bullish tailwind as well,” It also noted that September was the second strongest month for gold in the last half-century.

A familiar voice has been heard among gold buggers. Peter Schiff, the well-known Bitcoin skeptic who is chairman and chief economist at investment advisory firm Europac, underscored the divergence between traditional and “digital” gold over the weekend.

“Gold and silver breaking out is very bearish for Bitcoin,” he told X followers, warning that BTC was “poised to go much lower.”

Institutional buyers are stepping back

Bitcoin heading below its old all-time highs is starting to take its toll on investment habits.

Data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors confirmed that on Friday, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $126.7 million.

This marked a late turnaround for what had otherwise been a promising week, with institutional buyers adding BTC exposure despite BTC price making new lower lows.

Zooming out, however, the picture looks more precarious.

Charles Edwards reported multimonth-lows for institutional acquisitions.

“Institutional buying of Bitcoin has plunged to its lowest level since early April,” he commented alongside Capriole’s own data.

The figures show, however, that the combined institution demand is around 200% greater than new BTC supplies added each day by miners.

In August, meanwhile, the ETFs saw their second-worst month on record in terms of outflows, network economist Timothy Peterson notes. Total withdrawals were $750,000,000.

Bitcoin ETFs suffered withdrawals of $750,000,000 in August. This was the second-worst month in history. pic.twitter.com/uTOU4wHhTr

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 30, 2025

Bitcoin sees first post-halving “red” August

Bitcoin now stands at the start of what is traditionally its worst-performing month.

Related: Bitcoin at risk of Labor Day crash to $105K as sellers capitalize on OG BTC whale threat

As Cointelegraph continues to report, September has seen average returns of -3.5% for BTC/USD, with the “best” of the past twelve years only achieving 7.3% gains.

Bitcoin sealed its fourth consecutive “red” August with the monthly candle close, capping 6.5% losses.

“Seasonality is a real thing,” Peterson commented alongside a chart comparing Bitcoin bull markets.  

“Bitcoin has followed seasonality for 15 years; the equity markets, over 100 years. It repeats and can’t be arbitraged away because things like the tax year, school calendar, and weather/agricultural cycles are fixed.”

An accompanying chart underscored the lackluster moves seen in September, even during Bitcoin’s most bullish years.

Investor Mark Harvey noted that a red August marks a new first for Bitcoin in a post-halving year.

Harvey suggested that this was “evidence that $BTC is no longer following the 4-year halving cycle given recent institutional adoption,” suggesting that it was not a bearish signal.

This article contains no investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their research before making any decisions.