BitcoinBTCThe combination of technical and fundamental factors could help ) regain $100,000 in support, and then rally to $107,000 over the next days.
Takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s breakout gains traction with the help of bullish technicals, and selling pressure is decreasing.
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Macro signals point to a bullish outlook, as liquidity is expanding and BTC and gold are diverging.
BTC rally odds are raised by the ascending triangle and bull cross
Bitcoin broke free from an ascending triangle that lasted more than a week earlier this year. The currency has now entered a classic retest phase after the breakout.
BTC bounced higher after testing the resistance at the upper limit of the pattern, which was near $95,000. This is a typical move associated with breakouts that are valid and not false.
This level will keep the “real breakoutThe pattern will maintain its measured upside target of $107,000 by keeping the structure intact. This is calculated by adding maximum height for the triangle and breakout point by the end of February.
Bitcoin’s chart was also approaching a possible bullish crossover of the exponential moving averages (20-day, green) and the 50-day (red).
BTC prices increased 17% the last time a similar cross was printed. If the trend continues, this is a strong indicator.
Bitcoin holders who hold the currency for a long time reduce their selling
Bitcoins’ breakout has gained credence as selling pressure from long-term holders Continue to fade.
The data tracking UTXOs, or coins that have been dormant in a Bitcoin wallet for over five years, shows a material slowdown of distribution to recent tops.
In January 2018, the average 90-day spent output of coins peaked at 2,300 BTC early in the cycle, but declined later to the 1,000 BTC levels, suggesting that there are fewer new coins on the market.
Earlier during the rally, OG sales had surged well above levels seen in previous bull markets, reflecting a particularly attractive exit window created by spot ETF demandInstitutional participation and deeper liquidity.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling,” said DarkFrost adds:
“Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution.”
It is also worth noting that the net Bitcoin flows from exchanges have been at their highest since December 2024.
Positive Bitcoin-gold correlation: bullish for BTC or negative?
Bitcoin’s relationship with Gold in the past was also a macro signal that fit with this thesis.
Bitcoin has rallied an average 56% in the past when BTC’s relationship with gold became negative. This usually happened within two months. In May 2021, the only exception was caused by external shocks such as China’s crackdown on mining and deleveraging.
The situation appears more favorable in 2026 due to the rising global liquidity, and the ending of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
Related: Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes
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Source: cointelegraph.com
