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Bitcoin price is continuing to display signs of consolidation after reaching its highs of more than $111,000, which was recorded in May. The asset was trading for $104,851 at the time this article went to press, down by 0.3% over the last 24 hours. It is also 6.3% lower than its previous peak.
Analysts are examining whether this period of relative stability is a sign that the bull market cycle may be shifting gears, or if it’s just a brief pause.
CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan published a comparison of past and current market cycles. The analysis noted distinct behavior in Bitcoin’s recent price action.
Dan draws comparisons with the bull run of 2017 or 2021 and suggests that although there may be similarities, the current cycle has unique characteristics. These changes may indicate that the current market structure is different, particularly when it comes to timing and investor involvement.
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Comparing Bitcoin Cycles: 2024–2025 Diverges from Historical Patterns
Dan believes that the previous cycle’s corrections were better predicted. Bitcoin had a relatively quick correction in 2017, before moving into a prolonged rally The year ended in December.
A COVID-19 pandemic early in the cycle of 2021 caused a more prolonged initial correction, before it saw a significant upward surge. Once Bitcoin gained momentum in both cases, the corrections were less frequent and of shorter duration.
The current cycle, spanning 2024–2025, has so far been marked by alternating strong rallies and sudden declines, often occurring over short timeframes.
The patterns have depressed the market’s sentiment in general, especially when Bitcoin was significantly outperforming altcoins. Dan suggests that the repeated pullbacks in price may not just be organic.
These patterns could instead indicate that large players are deliberately suppressing cycles to prevent an overheating and prolong the duration of the cycle. This could be a sign of a large player deliberately suppressing the cycle to prolong its duration and prevent overheating. interpretation holdsThe bull market could be over in a flash, driven by an euphoric purchasing behavior.
As Institutions drive market structure, retail activity declines
Burak Kesmeci of CryptoQuant has also conducted an analysis on how retail investors have behaved since Bitcoin’s highs in May, when it reached $111,000 dollars.CryptoQuant is the source for this data. Data shows that retail transfer volumes, transactions valued between $0 and $10,000, have decreased from $423 million to $408 million.
Also, the 30-day changes in retail demand It has been slipped into negative territoryThis shift from +5 to -0.11 indicates that smaller investors are still sensitive to short-term volatility. Retail activity has decreased, suggesting that investors under 50 are more sensitive to the volatility of short-term prices.
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Kesmeci believes that retail participation is essential for the bull-cycle to continue. Currently, the main source of demand appears to be institutional interest. This divergence in investor types may influence the direction of Bitcoin’s next market cycle.
Chart created by TradingView, DALLE.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
