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Home»Bitcoin»This isn’t the best BTC forecast model: The Bitcoin stock-to-flow model

This isn’t the best BTC forecast model: The Bitcoin stock-to-flow model

Bitcoin By Gavin27/10/2025
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The Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: Companies' Surprising 2025 Lead
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, one of the most widely cited BTC valuation frameworks, forecasts a peak price of $222,000 during this market cycle, but investors should exercise caution when using the model, according to André Dragosch, the European head of research at investment firm Bitwise.

The Stock-to-Flow model Dragosch explained that the price model does not consider demand factors and is instead based on Bitcoin’s halves, which cut new BTC in half every four-years. Dragosch added:

“Today, institutional demand via Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and treasury holdings outweighs the annualized supply reduction from the latest Halving by more than seven times.”

The actual BTC price versus the implied S2F model. Source: André Dragosch

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, ETPs and other investment vehicles are now available. created a price floor for BTCSupporting prices over the $100,000 threshold.

Crypto Investors, analysts and market participants continue to argue about the current price of Bitcoin and whether it has peaked or if there is still room to grow, due to the maturity of the market, thanks to institutional investors.

Related: Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first ‘red’ October in years

Analysts discuss how high BTC could go during this current market cycle

You can still buy Bitcoin reach $200,000 by the end of 2025Geoff Kendrick – the global head for digital assets at Standard Chartered – a cryptocurrency bank – said that.

Investors could take advantage of the flash crash that brought BTC below $104,000 in October. This might lead to BTC reaching new heights.

Some analysts predict a BTC price as much as $500,000 In 2026 the global money supply will explode, driven largely by the growth of M2, a measure that tracks the amount of US Dollars in circulation.

The higher the M2, the more bullish the outlook for BTC is, because the increase in money supply will flow into assets which would raise prices. 

Crypto industry leaders like Tom Lee (CEO of the investment research company FundStrat) and Mike Novogratz (CEO of the crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital), however, are in disagreement.

Novogratz stated that $250,000 at the end of 2025 was a good investment. unlikely to materialize If you don’t want to be able to get a hold of us, please contact us. “crazy stuff” Tom Lee has warned us that this is what will happen. 50% BTC drawdown can still occur despite institutional adoption.

Magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds: Trade Secrets