Santa Rally could send Bitcoin price to $300K by Xmas Day

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s long-term prospects are better than its current state “power law” “Euphoric” price highs have historically been associated with previous cycles.

• Bitcoin could be the major beneficiary of a risk-on rally triggered by a falling dollar, and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• The spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to capture 70 percent of gold inflows by 2025.

BitcoinBTCAccording to an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, apsk32, Bitcoin has risen by 10 percent in July and reached new highs of $118,600. This could just be the beginning for a parabolic rally. Analyst said Bitcoin may be worth up to $258,000 in the future if past history is repeated. 

Apsk32 reports that Bitcoin has followed the long-term trend of a power curvature, a model mathematically reflecting BTC’s exponential rise over time. Power Law Time Contours measures deviations from the trendline in terms of dollars and time. 

The Analyst explained Bitcoin’s long-term power curve would intersect with the Bitcoin price in over two years if prices stayed the same. Apsk32 said,

“We’re currently above 79% of the historical data using this metric. The top 20% is what I call “Extreme Greed” These are the blow-off tops that come around every four years.”

It is important to note that the word “you” means “the”. “extreme greed” The zone ranges between $112,000 and $258,000. This is the same zone that was seen at Bitcoin’s peak in 2013, 2017 and 2021. Analysts suggested that “if the four-year pattern continues,” Bitcoin’s price could reach $200,000 to $300,000 before Christmas 2026, when the bullish trend begins to fade. 

Satraj Bamra, CEO at perpetual trading platform Rails told Cointelegraph a few macroeconomic forces would likely drive Bitcoin to a significant increase in value by 2025. Bambra cited an expanded Federal Reserve balance and a shift toward lower interest rate, possibly under a new Fed leadership in response to economic drag caused by rising tariffs as catalysts. Bitcoin could benefit from a general rally among risky assets if these changes are combined.

Bambra pointed to the US Dollar Index dropping below 100 in a recent macro-pivot as an early sign of a pivot. It suggests that fresh stimuli and rate cuts may be coming soon. In this context, CEO Michael A. Smith said:

“I see Bitcoin going parabolic in the region of $300K–500K driven by two key forces.”

Related: Is the crypto market entering a new supercycle? Here are 5 ways to know

Bitcoin ETF surpasses gold on the risk-on rally

According to a report by Investopedia, spot Bitcoin ETFs are outpacing gold and capturing 70 percent of the net flows year-to date. Ecoinometrics. This rebound, from an initial slow start of 2025, signals increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin and growing confidence as a legit store value.

Bitcoin is still a currency. risk-on assetIt has a modest correlation with the Nasdaq over the last 12 months. This is consistent with the five-year mean. The low correlation of its performance with bonds and gold highlights the unique role it plays in a portfolio.

Jurrien Timmer’s, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has recently echoed this sentiment. remarked Bitcoin is the new leader. Timmer believes that the shrinking Sharpe ratio gap between Bitcoin and Gold indicates BTC’s superiority in risk-adjusted return. Sharpe measures how much return is delivered by an asset for a given level of volatility, and compares it with the performance of a risk free benchmark.

This chart, which is based on the weekly data between 2018 and July 2025 shows that Bitcoin’s (1x), has closed in on Gold’s (4x) returns. Gold is currently at $20.34 while Bitcoin’s value has increased to $16.95.

Related: Bitcoin $120K expectations add fuel to ETH, HYPE, UNI and SEI

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making any kind of decision.