Takeaways:
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The weekly chart shows a 2021 style bearish divergence, which could indicate a 50%+ correction towards $64,000.
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Peter Brandt cautions that Bitcoin’s bull cycle could end before it reaches the target of $150,000 if its trendline parabolic is not reclaimed soon.
Bitcoin’s (BTC( surged to $112,000, a new record renewed hopes for a $150,000 target By the end of this year, however swift correction below $105,000 This is a test of the bullish narrative.
Bitcoin: Is it reversing to the downside?
Bitcoin has formed what looks like an inverse cup and handle pattern. Its neckline, which is currently near $100,800, acts as current support. On June 7, Bitcoin entered the “handle-formation” stage and is now aiming for a break down below the neckline.
A breakdown under $100,800 increases the likelihood that Bitcoin will drop to $91,000.
The downside target of $91,000 is aligned with BTC’s 200-day moving exponential average (200 EMA, the blue wave).
Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) The price of the stock has fallen in parallel with its decline, signaling a strong belief among traders behind this ongoing selling off.
The RSI was 52 as of 7th June, indicating a weakening upward momentum. A break below 50 would intensify the downside pressure.
Bulls need to retake the 20-day EMA resistance (the purple waves) at about $105,000 in order to regain control. BTC’s ability to reach $150,000 before 2025 could drop if the price drops towards $91,000.
BTC will not reach $150,000 by 2025, according to a 2021 fractal.
Bitcoin’s chart shows a warning on a larger timescale.
The price-RSI divergence is bearish, and reflects the top of the 2021 cycle, where RSI tended to trend lower despite high price levels. This divergence was followed by a 61% decline towards its 200-week EMA and below.
A similar pattern is visible now, with a divergence forming near the 112,000-dollar high, and a projected target pullback at the 200 week EMA of around $64,000. That would mark a 52% potential decline.
This historic setup makes it unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the $150,000 price target, as widely predicted by many analysts for the end of 2025. Especially if this divergence confirms the market’s top in a similar fashion to the past.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader and investor, adds weight to the outlook.
Brandt provides an analysis for May 2025 in his report. identified a rising wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline to stay on track for a $125,000–$150,000 cycle top by August or September 2025.
He notes that Failure to do so could mark the end of the current bullish cycle—potentially triggering a typical 50–60% drawdown following prior tops.
Gold and Bitcoin’s trajectory “bull flag” A $150K hint
Some analysts are still confident that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 despite the growing number of technical warnings.
They see parallels between the current Bitcoin structure and the gold market’s explosive growth in the early 2000s. They claim that BTC could mimic gold’s historic trajectoryReinforcing $150,000 as a scenario.
Analyst Tony Severino cites Bull flags can be used to determine a BTC boom towards $150,000.
Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher who focuses on the blockchain perspective, believes that BTC has reached a crucial point. “start” The rally zone is based on the historical cycles.
If the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and holds above 1.0, it would indicate the start of a new bullish impulse, the analyst notes, saying it could push Bitcoin’s price toward the $150,000–$175,000 range, similar to the rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
