There are 5 things to watch for the Bitcoin price comeback

BitcoinBTCThe first week in August is a pivotal time for, as the market nervousness and a BTC surge combine.

• BTC prices are expected to be volatile in August, after rebounding from their three-week lowest levels.

• According to analysis, the current market situation is fundamentally distinct from Bitcoin’s former all-time highs in January.

• As September bets on interest rate cuts return, the Federal Reserve is in the spotlight as macro conditions continue to dominate.

• Even whales reduce their exposure to Bitcoin at the beginning of each month.

• The demand for Bitcoin is still strong, which helps to put the short-term nervousness of the market into context.

BTC now costs $116.500 “magnet”

Bitcoin’s price has been fluctuating since it fell below $112,000 last Friday. Cointelegraph Markets Pro You can also find out more about the following: TradingView Shows a push towards $115,000.

Contrast between the fear of a larger BTC price drop and the belief that BTC/USD will continue to rise. preparing for new all-time highs.

$BTC Chart couldn’t possibly be bullish.

Previous ATH Re-test✅

The Daily Close Above SMA 50✅

BTC looks good to be able to reach a new ATH. pic.twitter.com/JZVFIr4Cjt

— BitBull (@AkaBull_) August 4, 2025

“$BTC has continued its streak of setting the high or low within the first week of the month. We’ll have to see if August is going to be any different,” Daan Crypto trades summary by Daan latest analysis On X.

“What we do know is that the current monthly high ($116K) has a very low chance of holding as we’ve never seen a monthly wick high this small in the past 4 years.”

Daan Crypto Trades concluded there was not enough volatility in the price movements. 

“The current move from high to low is also just ~3.6%,” He noted. 

“There’s also a very high likelihood we make a larger move this month. The smallest monthly low to high difference within a month is about 10% for BTC in its past 4 years. This of course says nothing about direction.”

Crypto Caesar is a colleague trader. eyed A “big bounce” Comparing current price movements to the moves since May.

TheKingfisher, an influential commentator, analysed the liquidity of exchange order books and identified $116.500 to be a critical level where short BTC position would liquidate.

“Most traders are probably just staring at the price action, but smart money knows this is where the fuel for a move is,” He told X Followers Sunday, Calling $116,500 a “magnet.”

Bitcoin’s trend line is key to price movement

The old highs were reached in $109,300 in JanuaryBitcoin experienced a painful and long retracement for the bulls.

BTC/USD had plummeted by April. multimonth lows under $75,000After a drop of more than 30% from the previous highs,.

In a little over a month, the pair’s price is almost 10% lower than its previous record-high, prompting comparisons to the early price movement. 

CrypNuevo trader had no reason to expect that Bitcoin’s behavior would be the same as it was at previous highs.

“Is January’s Price Action repeating now?” He asked about the question in an X thread Sunday.

“The reversal PA was almost identical at the highs since it’s a common pattern for a pullback after reducing momentum. However, the current situation is very different and it’s unlikely PA repeats further.”

CrypNuevo stated that in January, the moving average exponential (EMA) of 50 days was a little below its normal level. This then turned into a resistance.

Only one close was recorded below the 50-day EMA on August 2.

“In January, we saw the 1D50EMA becoming resistance. I doubt we see that now. I think a deviation below it to $110k support should likely hold well,” The thread continues

CrypNuevo says that “market structure and context” It was a different month from January. increasing odds of a US interest-rate cut The month of September is a great time to get out and enjoy the outdoors.

Consensus again favors September rate cut

The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for the US economy and its data, will be in the spotlight as there are fewer economic reports due this week.

At their last meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not cut interest rates. The dispute with Donald Trump over this issue continues.

Powell is already facing calls from Trump to resign over his policy which he views as being too restrictive and expensive to the economy.

“Powell should be put ‘out to pasture,'” Trump demanded In a posting on Truth Social, Aug.

The Fed has been able to maintain its current course despite mixed inflation figures and a robust labor market. most recent jobs figures Do not be unsure how long you can avoid rate reductions.

CME Group data shows that the market expectations have shifted, and are back in favor of a 0.25% initial cut during September’s Fed meeting. FedWatch Tool.

Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair of Supervision at the Fed) will make a speech in the next few days. previously signaled That she was open to the idea of a reduction in rates for July.

As US trade tariffs continue to increase, earnings have been a constant.

“Volatility has returned as August officially kicks off with earnings season in full swing,” The Kobeissi Letter – a summary thread on X Sunday.

BTC price drop unites small and large sellers

Bitcoin’s dip to new 3-week lows below $112,000 coincided with a continuing sell-off, involving all investors from retail to whales.

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant analyzed data on inflows into exchanges, and found that the market was derisking.

On Aug. 1 alone, over 40,000 BTC hit exchanges at a loss This is only coming from entities that have been huddled for less than six months, called short-term investors (STHs).

At the same moment, the exchange whale rate, which measures the proportion of money coming from whale wallets reached “dominating” levels.

“When large deposits coincide with whales dominating these deposits, the market typically enters a phase of selling pressure and rapid decline,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain writes in one its Quicktake blog posts Saturday. 

“If whales continue to deposit Bitcoin to exchanges at the same pace, further pressure on the Bitcoin price is expected.”

Bitcoin demand “still here” — analysis

CryptoQuant’s analysis of demand dynamics led to mixed conclusions that should favor the bulls.

Related: Bitcoin dip making ‘perfect bottom,’ says analyst: Will BTC rally to $148K?

Although price volatility led hodlers to change their appetite for BTC, the long-term trend shows that Bitcoin remains in high demand.

“Some investors are probably starting to worry given the recent price drop, especially STH who are now either forced to realize losses or hold underwater positions. To assess whether the situation could worsen significantly, analyzing current demand is essential,” Darkfost, a contributor to a Quicktake Post Sunday

Darkfost has flagged its Apparent Demand Metric, which compares newly-mined Bitcoin against the supply of Bitcoin that has been inactive over the last year.

“When the ratio drops below zero, it means demand has turned negative; conversely, when it rises above zero, it signals positive demand,” “He said” 

“Currently, demand remains clearly positive, with around 160 000 BTC accumulated over the past 30 days.”

In the past 30 days, accumulation wallets (which only store BTC, but have no transactions outbound) have increased exposure by 50 000 BTC.

The long-term perspective of the over-the counter (OTCThe trend in the number of (deals) is also clear. OTC desks now hold over 500,000 BTC as opposed to 145,000 BTC just in 2021.

“Whether we look at short-term or long-term demand, the picture remains broadly positive,” Darkfost conclusion 

“There is no major sign of concern from demand-side indicators, despite recent price volatility.”

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making any kind of investment.