Bitcoin risks rise below $117K, as open interest remains high

Takeaways from the conference:

• The onchain Bitcoin metrics are convergent around $100,000, signaling an area of hidden risk.

• BTC’s BTC market structure is at risk due to the high open interest.

BitcoinBTC( ) continued to be in a range on Wednesday after a brief return from the zone of demand between $112,000-$113,000.

BTC attempted to rise above the trendline of descending resistance at time of publication. This could have led to an increase in price to Monday’s $115,700 high.

CryptoMe is a crypto analyst. indicated A potential risk area for Bitcoin is around $105,000, and this zone has been gaining in importance across several onchain metrics.

Using Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) analysis and realized price models, the analyst outlined key indicators that are converging on the $105,000–$106,000 region:

• The UTXO Cost Basis Histogram shows a wall of $105,644, indicating high accumulation onchain or realisation at this price.

• 1–3 Month Holder realized price also hovers near $106,000, reflecting the average cost for mid-term holders.

• The average cost of BTC for Short-Term Holders (STHs) is $105,350.

The analyst, despite the fact that the data suggests a potential bearish scenario in the near term but a positive outlook on Bitcoin for the medium- and long-term.

It was considered that a possible retest of around $105,000 would be a scenario for the short term, and could cause significant volatility. This in turn poses risks to those traders on derivatives markets who have leverage.

Data from Glassnode also indicated that Bitcoin’s position was precarious below $117,000.

Related: Bitcoin may still have steam for $250K this year: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

The UTXO Around $117,000 was the area where most of 634,051 BTCs UTXOs or BTCs last moved, were either created.

Under that level, there was a large gap, which extended to $108,000 and minimal support at $113,000. The gap showed the likelihood of rapid downward movement should BTC lose its current level. This would reinforce the possibility that BTC could reach $105,000.

BTC prices are at risk due to the elevated OI

Trading platform Hyblock Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s open interest (OI), which is $79 billion at the time of writing, suggests that speculative activity in the futures markets has not fully reset.

The market is fragile because of this, particularly since the BTC has been corrected from its all-time peak price of $123,000.

According to Hyblock, when OI remains at frothy levels while the Fear & Greed Index enters “Extreme Greed” Territorial tops have historically been preceded by local corrections.

BTC dropped from $120,000 down to $112,000 after this recent pattern was observed. The Fear & Greed Index has now reset to Neutral, but high open interest outlined price uncertainty. 

Similarly, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that futures market bearishness peaked at –7.5% on July 29, shortly after BTC hit a new all-time high. While that pressure has since eased slightly to –5.2%, the structural risks remain.

Adler cautioned that a sudden catalyst for a negative trend could lead to escalating long-term liquidations and accelerate the downward momentum.

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.