Glassnode – Fed Lowers rates, but BTC remains below $100K

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. This is the third rate reduction this year, and it was in line with expectations. As is typical of its previous pre-FOMC price actionBitcoin surged to $94,000 in value on Monday. However, the media’s depiction is a hawkish one, reflecting a Fed divided about the future direction of US monetary and economic policy.

Then, “hawkish” The Bitcoin rate could fall as a result of the recent cut in rates. Bitcoin prices may remain range bound until new drivers emerge.

CNBC reported It is possible that in 2026, the Fed will slow down the pace and rate at which it cuts rates.

Glassnode claims that Bitcoin (BTC( ) continues to be trapped within a range that is structurally unstable below $100,000. The price movement remains constrained between the $102,700 short-term cost base and the $100,300 long-term cost. “True Market Mean” At $81,300.

Glassnode’s data showed a deterioration in on-chain conditions as well as dwindling futures demand and a persistent selling pressure, all of which are contributing to the continued holding BTC under $100,000.

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin’s range is structurally unstable, and it has kept the price below $100,000. Unrealized losses are increasing.

• Losses realized have risen to $555 millions/day, which is the highest amount since the FTX crash in 2022.

• A heavy loss of profit by those who hold the STH longer than a year, and a capitulation from top buyers prevents reclaiming the STH-Cost Basis.

• Bitcoin may be unable to benefit from Fed rate cuts on the short-term.

Bitcoin’s time for recovery is shortening

The following is a list of GlassnodeBitcoin’s failure to surpass $100,000 was a reflection of a structural tension that is growing: Time works against bulls. As the price was held within this range for longer, more losses were not realized, which increased the chances of a forced sale. 

In the last two years, relative unrealized losses (30-day SMA) have been below 2%. The transition to higher stress is evident by this increase. Despite BTC’s rebound from its low of Nov. 22, which was roughly $92,700 dollars, the entity adjusted realized loss has continued to climb, and reached $555,000,000/day. This level had previously been seen in the FTX collapse.

Long-term investors (holding period greater than 1 year) also realized profits of more than $1 Billion/day, with a peak at $1.3 Billion. This dynamic of capitulation from top buyers and heavy distribution from long-term holders, potentially kept BTC under the key cost-basis thresholds, unable to retake the $95,000–$102,000 resistance band that capped the fragile range.

Related: Bitcoin hikes volatility into ‘tricky’ FOMC as $93.5K yearly open fails

BTC Futures Market in Decline

CryptoQuant Data found The crypto market rallies before FOMC meetings. However, a divergence is evident where Bitcoin’s price has increased while the open interest has declined.

OI fell during the correction phase that began in October. However, even though BTC reached new highs on November 21, the OI continued to decline. The rally was primarily driven by demand for spot, not leveraged speculation.

CryptoQuant noted that, while uptrends fueled by spot are usually healthy and positive in nature, historically sustained bullish momentum has required increasing leveraged position. Spot volume is only 10% of the derivatives market, as derivatives are the dominant structure.

Related: Short the dip and buy the rip? What FOMC outcomes reveal about Bitcoin price action

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