Bitcoin (BTC), despite continuing recovery, is currently trading at a price that’s about 40% lower than its record-breaking high of $126,000 in October 2025.
Some of the loudest cryptocurrency bulls haven’t backed off their prediction for $250,000 at year’s end. This would mean a more than threefold increase from current prices.
Does that sound realistic? Or is Bitcoin’s recent drawdown an indication that the current cycle may have already reached its peak?
The key takeaways
- Bitcoin may be set to resume its selloff due to an ongoing bearish pattern.
- Price declines in BTC 2026 are likely to be a result of midterm elections and a halving of the price.
Veteran trader warns about further BTC price drop
Peter Brandt has been a futures trader for many years. highlighted A channel pattern could be seen on the Bitcoin chart daily, which would keep BTC’s chances of reaching $250,000 in this year at a low level.
BTC began to show signs of weakness on Tuesday. It had tested its upper resistance boundary, which was near $79500. If this correction continues, BTC could drop towards the lower flag boundary at around $69,000 in May.
Stop with the mushrooms, those of you who predict $250,000 by 2026
The channel is also called this.
This is not an indication of a bullish price bottom, although it may be able to lead to further gains.
A channel that appears to be a pattern of a “bear flag” is visible from a distance. The BTC price could fall below $50,000 if it breaks through its lower trendline.
Half-fractals in Bitcoin show that the bear market is halfway through
BTC’s cycles of price have followed a consistent pattern historically. halvings every four years.
In the past, cycle peaks occurred between 12 and 18 months after an event. In 2012, it took 12 months to reach the top. In 2016, the halving reached its peak in just 17 months. The 2020 halving reached its maximum after 18 months.
In this case, the April 2024 halves fits into place. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, roughly 17–18 months later.
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Now, in late April 2026 (over 24 months post-halving), BTC trades around $77,000, down 38%–40% from that peak. The alignment of the lines suggests that the high in 2025 may be the top for this cycle, and it casts doubt on any new highs during the rest of 2026.
Bitcoin sales may return in May
The following are some of the ways to get in touch with each other chart Merlijn the Trader, an analyst from Merlijn is adding to this cautious narrative by pointing out a recurring “Sell in May” Pattern in US midterm elections
BTC fell 61% from 2014 to 2016, 66% between 2018 and 2022. This all began in May, the year of an election.
Merlijn, using a similar model for 2026, projected that BTC could drop by over 60%. This would put BTC at a level near $30,000, according to Merlijn.
Capital Group analysts Matt Miller, Chris Buchbinder and John McKinley released a report in February. said Midterm elections are often a time of uncertainty regarding the control of Congress and its policy. Investors tend to reduce risk and slow purchases as the campaign rhetoric intensifies in spring.
This backdrop makes it less likely that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 this year, despite the fact that several analysts including those in Bernstein, see room for a more modest rebound toward the $100,000–$150,000 range.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
