BitcoinBTCThe weekly candle closed at $76,931 Sunday. BTC lost its 100-week average moving price for the first since October 2023. Analysts have begun to assess whether or not this is the start of a new bear market. They are also evaluating what the shift could mean for Bitcoin’s recovery over the long run.
Takeaways from the conference:
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Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed below the simple 100-week moving average. This trend is linked to multi-month declines.
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The past bearish breaks below the weekly trends lasted anywhere between 182 days and 532.
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The level between $85,000-$95,000 could be a significant resistance due to heavy volume.
Bitcoin drops below long-term, weekly trends
Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed below the 100-week moving average, which is near $87,000. BTC has lost a macro-trend level that is important.
Crypto proponent Brett noted Bitcoin, with the exception of the COVID-19 2020 flash crash, has been below the SMA for extended periods. BTC was below the 100-week SMA for 357 consecutive days during the 2014 to 2015. Prices ranged from $200 up to $600 after the bull market’s 2013 peak.
The period from 2018 to 2019 lasted for 182 days and coincided with the bottom of the bear market between $3,000-$6,000.
In 2022, Bitcoin spent 532 days below the 100-week SMA after the FTX collapse, consolidating between $16,000 and $25,000.
The accumulation of each instance was more than the quick recovery, which suggests that time could be the deciding factor for the next bullish phase.
Bear market risks are raised by the dominance of USDT and its $85,000 resistance level
Crypto Analyst Sherlock said After the USDT dominance graph posted a close of more than 7.2%, a bearish market could emerge. In previous cycles, closing above 6.7% was a sign of bearishness. This recent breakthrough, which is its first since more than 2 1/2 years, has a special significance.
The Analyst highlighted The $85,000 resistance level is a major one. In Q4, 2025 more than $120 billion worth of spot volumes were traded between $85,000-$95,000, which left many BTC owners underwater. BTC currently nearing $78,000. A rally to $85,000 will face selling pressure from traders who may want to get out at breakeven.
Related: BTC price heads back to 2021: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC Fractal Structure Mirrors Drop from 2022
Bitcoin’s structure shows similarities with the dip of 2022. BTC then formed lower lows, lost its 100-week SMA and did not sustain recovery.
The same pattern can be seen in 2026. Bitcoin’s price may return to the $45,000-$40,000 range in 2026 if this fractal pattern continues. This is a well-established demand area. Although fractals cannot be predicted, this setup indicates that downside risks remain elevated until Bitcoin regains its 100-week SMA.
Related: Saylor’s Strategy buys $75.3M in BTC as prices briefly dip below $75K
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Source: cointelegraph.com
