BTC Data Shows Bitcoin to Drop Below $115K

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is weakened by a hidden bearish divergence in the RSI.

• A CME gap between $114,000–$115,000 could act as a magnet. 

• Bitcoin’s distribution is based upon market cycles and various indicators.

BitcoinBTCThree charts indicate that a new weekly low could be possible in July. While the overall trend of long-term price movement remains unchanged, traders must be ready for some short-term volatility.

Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a hidden divergence between the price of the cryptocurrency and its relative strength index, a momentum indicator which measures price changes.

The RSI will form equal highs or even lower ones. This is a hidden bearish divergence. Divergence can indicate a weakness in the rally’s momentum, which often leads to corrections on the downside.

The same pattern was seen in March 2024. Bitcoin In the days that followed, we saw a drop of 20% in price. Similarly, this divergence might lead to yet another correction, possibly pushing Bitcoin’s price to new short-term bottoms. 

BTC CME Gap is a Downside Magnet

CME gaps are between $114.380 and $115.635 in the daily chart. CME gaps occur when Bitcoin trading occurs outside the regular Chicago Mercantile Exchange hours, leaving price voids which are filled by active traders during normal sessions.

The historical data shows that Bitcoin has tended to increase in value. “fill” They, that is, the price returns to cover the non-traded range. By 2025, the CME has already filled seven of its nine gaps, leaving only one remaining, a small gap between $91,970-$92,450.

Bitcoin has a high chance of returning to these levels. This could lead to a temporary dip in order to reach the $114,000 level.

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Bitcoins are in a zone of distribution

Anonymous crypto analyst Gaah noted The Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators has entered distribution zone. This is a historically associated region with euphoria in the market and intermediate tops. It is the third time in this bull cycle that we have seen such an entry.

While the index reached only the bottom base of the area (80%) and not its peak (100%), as seen during past cycles tops, it still served as a cautionary signal. Puell Multiples and STH SOPR (Short Term Holder Spent Production Profit Ratios) are still below the mid-levels. These indicators suggest that aggressive profit taking by miners and retail speculation have not yet peaked. Gaah continued. 

“The behavior of the IBCI therefore offers an important warning sign: we are in a zone of high corrective risk in the short term, but not necessarily at a major end-of-cycle top.”

Related: Bitcoin due ‘massive short squeeze’ as BTC dominance bounces to 62%

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.