BTC Data Shows Bitcoin to Drop Below $115K

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is weakened by a hidden bearish divergence in the RSI.

• A CME gap between $114,000–$115,000 could act as a magnet. 

• Bitcoin’s distribution is reflected by market cyclicality as well as a number of other indicators.

BitcoinBTC) is showing signs of potential weakness, with three critical charts suggesting the possibility of new weekly lows in July. Although the trend is still intact on a long-term basis, traders need to be prepared for volatility in short term.

Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a hidden divergence between the price of the cryptocurrency and its relative strength index, a momentum measure that determines the intensity of price fluctuations.

The RSI will form equal or higher highs when price is making new highs but the price has not. The divergence indicates a weakening of the momentum that is driving the rally. This can lead to a correction on either side.

The same pattern was seen in March 2024. Bitcoin In the days that followed, we saw a drop of 20% in price. The divergence could also lead to a new corrective movement, pushing Bitcoin down to new short-term levels. 

BTC CME gaps are a magnet for the downside

CME gaps are between $114.380 and $115.635 in the daily chart. CME gaps occur when Bitcoin trading occurs outside the regular Chicago Mercantile Exchange hours, leaving price voids which are filled by active traders during normal sessions.

The historical data shows that Bitcoin has tended to increase in value. “fill” The price will retrace to the range that was not traded. By 2025, the CME has already filled seven of its nine gaps, leaving only one remaining, a small gap between $91,970-$92,450.

Bitcoin has a high chance of returning to these levels. This could lead to a temporary dip in order to reach the $114,000 level.

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Bitcoins are in a zone of distribution

Anonymous crypto analyst Gaah noted Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators have entered the distribution area, which has historically been associated with euphoria in the market and temporary tops. It is the third time in this bull cycle that we have seen such an entry.

Analyst explained that even though the index only touched the lower base (80%) of the zone, not the 100 percent peak seen at past cycle tops (similar to the current reading), the reading is still a warning. Puell Multiples and the STH-SOPR ratio (Short-Term Holder Spent-Output Profit Ratio), which are key indicators, remain well below mid-levels. They suggest that both retail speculation and aggressive profit taking by miners has not peaked. Gaah said. 

“The behavior of the IBCI therefore offers an important warning sign: we are in a zone of high corrective risk in the short term, but not necessarily at a major end-of-cycle top.”

Related: Bitcoin due ‘massive short squeeze’ as BTC dominance bounces to 62%

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.