Bitcoin trades at $67,300. That’s a long way off the recent high, $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars.
Related Reading
A Model Built On Scarcity
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000The range of prices is from $250,000. to $1,000,000.
The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow.
PlanB has been careful in its reporting to state that the figures are a cycle-average, and not a guarantee or ceiling.
Bitcoin halvings Reducing the number new coins that enter circulation. It was last done in April 2024. In the past, every halving of prices has been accompanied by a price increase. PlanB’s main argument is based on this historical pattern.
🚨 Bitcoin at $67k… but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! 📈 Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? 🤔 What do you think, is S2F a bust or a bull? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026
Some people are not buying it
Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint.
Bobby A says that Stock-to Flow is a good guide for long-term planning, but it fails when trying to pinpoint specific targets on complex markets.
He says the model does not take into consideration the multiple variables that affect Bitcoin prices.
I’m somewhere in between. According to me, Bitcoin’s current value is low and I expect it to trade between $200,000 and $250,000 by the time this cycle reaches its end in 2026 or 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.… https://t.co/d8wu0skKuN
— Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026
The skepticism that has been expressed is well-founded. The Stock-to Flow model was heavily criticized after Bitcoin failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle.
Some analysts have written off the model completely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage.
Related Reading
Bitcoin: What is the current state of affairs?
Bitcoin’s recent drop in value is due to a number of external pressures. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility.
This data shows ETF The inflows which helped Bitcoin hit record highs at the beginning of this year are inconsistent.
Many analysts, according to reports, see the current phase as a consolidation period following the rally which took Bitcoin over $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question.
PlanB’s average of $500,000 would mean that Bitcoin must climb seven times higher than its current value before the cycle is over. This is a big number. Investors say that in an 18-month period, the market went from $20,000 up to $73,000.
Featured images from Free3D.comTradingView chart
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
“ItsDailyCrypto is not responsible for any activities you perform outside ItsDailyCrypto.”
Source: www.newsbtc.com
