Bitcoin Supercycle? Jeff Park: Gold’s gains of $1T could ignite it

In a wide-ranging interview with Anthony Pompliano published on October 2, Jeff Park, partner and Chief Investing Officer at ProCap BTC, argued that gold’s surging price and shifting global ownership patterns are not a threat to Bitcoin—but potentially the catalyst for its next structural leg higher. Park’s theory is based on flow, geopolitics and balance sheet mechanics. If policymakers and big allocators can learn how to access the gains in gold held by sovereign governments, then they may be able to redirect some of this liquidity towards Bitcoin, igniting what Park has repeatedly called a “supercycle”.

Gold’s rally may trigger a Bitcoin supercycle

“The math is pretty simple,” Park said. “What if we find a way to unlock the ability to build leverage on the paper gains of gold to take a call option on Bitcoin? There’s something incredible here that could happen.” The scenario he uses is a back of the envelope one. “a trillion dollars of Bitcoin is actually hugely impactful for the bitcoin market.” He compared the size of this impulse to that of the US’ fiscal problems, arguing that a billion dollars, while small compared with public debt, would have a much greater impact on a relatively young asset of finite availability and low free float.

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Park was prompted to make his remarks by the simple question of why gold is booming while Bitcoin lagged relative terms? He did not dispute gold’s leadership—calling it “the story of the year”—but argued the drivers differ. The gold market is currently a place of geopolitical significance and central bank rebalancing. Bitcoin adoption depends on the institutional flows which are just beginning. “Ultimately [these markets] are driven by flows,” he added that Bitcoin’s flow is “inevitable” So long as the agenda of institutional advancement advances “focused deliberation.”

Park’s model is built around the idea of changing gold geography. He pointed out that there were two realities at once: The headline and the reality. US gold reserves have reached a large notional value because of price—and the under-discussed fact that the US share of global official gold has sunk over decades. “At one point post-World War II the US had over 50% of the world’s global gold reserve supply as a central bank and now it’s less than 20%. So who’s making up for the compensation on their side? Likely China and many other BRIC countries in the lead.” Park believes that this shift helps to explain gold’s persistence.

He said that China exerts influence through both accumulation and building of market infrastructure. He highlighted “the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange” The rise of “the Shanghai Futures Exchange,” It is worth observing “physical gold now actually trades in China” At a scale that was once only associated with London. In an early symbolic gesture, “for the first time [they] opened up vaults in Hong Kong to allow offshore investors to put their gold in reserves,” Park believes that this is part of an overall strategy to increase the creditworthiness and reliability of commodity trading settled with CNY.

Will the US act first?

Park then linked this realignment of gold to Bitcoin’s ad-hoc demand. Park referred to a scenario where the US would take the unrealized gains from its gold, if it were marked at the market price and either borrow against these gains or revalue them to buy Bitcoin as its strategic reserve for President Donald Trump. “Gold has been marked at the Treasury at $42 an ounce and we all know right now it’s trading at [roughly] 3850… There’s a trillion dollars of basically paper gains.” He said that in that context, the leveraging of paper gains to a rare digital reserve could be an upgrade high beta for a sovereign’s balance sheet.

When asked about the feasibility of executive action, Park differentiated between legislation and executive actions. “The executive path is a great starting point to create a watershed moment,” “He said that, but” “no democratic coalition is truly bought in until a legislative motion.” It is possible to show intent, but it would be more effective for a Bitcoin strategy. “irreversible” It is important to align the adoption of sound-money with the social and broader mandate that he refers to.

This is the crux of it “supercycle” The power of framing compounds. Park used return profiles to quantify the importance of a base allocation that is large, but not financed. “If you own Bitcoin and you assume that it’s going to go up by 12% a year, you’ll make a 30x in 30 years… If you think it’s actually going to go up by 40% per year, which is what the [asset] has been otherwise annualizing, it’s 10 years.” He said that the goal was not to guarantee these figures, but instead to demonstrate how modest annualized return can cover important fiscal gaps when base is sufficient and asset is credible.

Why Is Bitcoin Lagging Gold?

Park also discussed why Bitcoin is not growing at the same pace as gold. “Part of the reason, according to him, is that Bitcoin looks like gold. “living, breathing software” Gold’s attraction is due to its immutability over millennia. Newcomers can be scared by the transparency of Bitcoin governance. They only hear noise. “If I were outside and I was a BlackRock ETF buyer and I listened to the conversation that’s happening between the Bitcoin developers, I might say, ‘Hold on a second. This is crazy stuff.'” He framed himself. current developer disputes—such as arguments over relay policy or spam-filter defaults—as hygiene issues, not existential ones. The issues of performance and propagation are relevant, but the core assurances in terms of money do not. “21 million or bust.”

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He cited the lessons learned from the war on block size to show why checks and balances in the system are not bugs, but a benefit. “Ultimately, who is running consensus at Bitcoin?… The node clients are very valuable and they are in control versus miners and their self-interests. And that was a huge moment because it showed you decentralization was alive.” It is true that there will be disagreements about the difference between rules hardcoded and norms socially enforced. But he still believes in this process. “future-proof[s] Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value.”

Park remained focused on flows throughout. Gold’s flows, in his assessment, are being pulled by geopolitics and central-bank behavior—especially in Asia. Bitcoin’s flow will be driven by the institutional adoption of bitcoin and by, possibly, policy innovations that turn dormant strength on balance sheets into active demand. This is why he views the assets more as complements to the same macroproblem than rivals vying for one inflow.

“Gold’s greatest cultural power is its impermanent fixture in our mindset and its durability for eons,” He added. Bitcoin offers a unique combination of sovereignty, portability and programability which younger generations find appealing. “Young people are mentally more able to do things that older people can’t… the trend of young people understanding digital store of wealth… is the big picture.”

You spoke to me @dgt10011 On whether bitcoin is a better investment than gold. Also, on the durability of Bitcoin vs Gold.

Enjoy!

YouTube: https://t.co/kwCRnibemU… pic.twitter.com/0BckI7h7Eb

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 3, 2025

Park thinks the market can quickly change if a generational switch meets with a balance sheet pivot at government level. “A trillion dollars of Bitcoin is hugely impactful,” He said that the reason it works is because it creates incentives among issuers and custodians as well as policymakers to work together around a digital reserve which can be considered scarce. In that world, the present period—where gold leads and Bitcoin consolidates—may be remembered not as divergence, but as staging.

“Bitcoin will catch up,” Park said. “These are ultimately driven by flows.” The supercycle label may not just be hyperbole. It could simply describe how the new liquidity is compounded when it finally meets the hard cap.

BTC was trading at $120.313 as of press time.

Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com