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Carmelo A. Aleman has recently published a CryptoQuant Quicktake article stating that Bitcoin (BTC), is gaining in popularity. “still far from a true supply shock.” Analyst cites several metrics on the blockchain to claim that, despite the declining reserves of the currency leading to the cryptocurrency in the short term is not likely to experience a genuine shortage.
Bitcoin Supply Shock! But Not Yet
BTC’s price has been fluctuating between $91,500 to $95,800 since April 21. This tight trading range gives little indication of its future direction. Aleman offers a cautious view. While many analysts have highlighted the possibility of a supply shock, which could push Bitcoin’s value much higher.
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Aleman claims that BTC reserves at centralized exchanges have been declining steadily for the past 12 months. Specifically, reserves dropped from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11, to 2,490,318 BTC as of April 28 – marking a 15.35% decrease in just five months.

During the same period, Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization – a metric that calculates the total value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved – has surged from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion. This is a reflection of the increase in actual capital invested into the Bitcoin network and not just speculation on the market.

Aleman says that BTC is becoming more popular. “expensive,” a purchase of approximately 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially drive the cryptocurrency’s price to $130,000–$140,000. But he warns that a similar scenario could trigger significant sales pressure by miners. He continues:
This could help counteract the loss of exchange reserves because historically miners have sold more when the price increases. A price increase would probably encourage more selling, even if exchange reserves are still falling.
The analyst concludes that a true supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely unless Bitcoin sees a massive influx of capital – enough to push its Realized Capitalization to three or four times its current level.
BTC Technicals point to Breakout
Even though the likelihood of an supply-driven rally is low, the digital asset still has a chance. Many technical indicators are pointing to an imminent bullish Rally for cryptocurrency
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Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index has been rising in recent weeks. broke A long-standing trendline downward, which could indicate a possible momentum shift. This could be a key factor in BTC’s return to the $100,000 level within weeks.
Recent on-chain data also shows that the short-term holders of bitcoin are increasing. refraining from selling their BTC – even while in the red – which may signal growing investor confidence and a potential bullish reversal. BTC was trading at $94,374 as of press time. This is down by 0.4% from the previous 24 hours.

Charts from TradingView.com and CryptoQuant.com.
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
“ItsDailyCrypto is not responsible for any activities you perform outside ItsDailyCrypto.”
Source: www.newsbtc.com

