In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict — but if that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe.
Lavish said that, if the war drags on, and the oil price pressure continues, it could lead to a new inflation shock. There would also be renewed concerns about stagflation, and major price changes on global markets.
According to his opinion, the Federal Reserve would be in an impossible situation: not able to increase rates quickly without risking recession but unable cut rates as a result of inflation.
The conversation is especially important for Bitcoin.BTC). Lavish describes why Bitcoin’s behavior has been different from that of gold, equities or even the dollar in recent months and why this relative stability may not be sustainable in an actual crisis. “correlation-to-one” The panic attack is a real event.
He says that if markets continue to decline, Bitcoin may fall by another 10-20%, possibly returning to the range of low $50,000, or high $40,000.
Lavish, however, is not a bearish forecaster.
One of the most compelling parts of the interview is his argument that such a sell-off would not destroy the Bitcoin thesis — it could actually create a major opportunity. Also, he explains how investors can avoid getting too exposed or over-leveraged in a market dominated by headlines about the war and bond stresses.
Interview also covers energy markets, Treasury returns, money printing, and safe-haven investments.
You can watch our full YouTube interview to find out how a macro investor views war risks, recessions and Bitcoins future. Don’t forget you to subscribe.
For clarity, this interview has been condensed and edited.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
