Bitcoins to drop below $100K if Trump doesn’t do TACO

Takeaways from the conference: 

• Bitcoin’s price is being pushed down by the deterioration of US-China relations and President Donald Trump’s recent expansion in US tariffs. Traders are also avoiding leveraged long positions. 

• Analysts are optimistic that the next macroeconomic event will reversal this downward trend.  

Bitcoin (BTCMarket structure is aiming to restore balance after last week’s abrupt correction. However, the intensifying headwinds of Trump’s new tariff war against China and the unprecedented length of the US Government shutdown are preventing bullish investors from opening up positions on futures markets. 

Since Bitcoin reached $107,000 on the Coinbase exchange, Oct. 10, the Coinbase Premium Index (which measures the difference in the volume of market purchases and sales) and spot cumulative volume delta for both professional and retail investors have steadily risen. 

In the graph below you can see how volume deltas, funding dynamics, and the open interest dynamics have developed since the sell-off on October 10. US retail and institution investors seem to be accumulating BTC while Binance permanent futures traders have aggressively sold. 

When comparing Binance’s spot volumes with its futures (third chart), the delta for the spot is positive. However, the delta for the perps is negative, which highlights the rise in short positions. These results confirm the idea that perps is driving the selling, reinforcing a downward trend. Meanwhile, the spot buyer demand is providing strength between $107,000 and $108,000. 

Below is an alternate expression. 

The liquidation heatmap (Binance Bybit BitMEX), based on the potential short-term price movement of Bitcoin, suggests that traders may chase clusters in liquidation for long positions between $106,300 and $104,000, while short positions could be closed at $115,000. 

Quinn Thompson is the Chief Investment officer at Lekker Capital. He believes that while prices may remain turbulent in short-term, they will stabilize over time. said: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded Traders “just trade the price action” As the next seven days will be packed with exciting events. 

In the coming weeks, you will likely be required to follow these narratives.
US CPI released
Reopening of the US Government is possible
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
The Gold Top
– Taco or No TACO

Or you could…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.