Bitcoin is now back over $112,000, after falling to its lowest level since July last week. The recovery has given traders hope, although analysts are divided on whether it will last through September.
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Examining September’s Performance
Data from the past shows that September is not a good month for Bitcoin in years following its halving. The coin lost close to 8 percent in 2017, while the loss was only 7% in 2021.
In 2013, Bitcoin In that same month, the index fell 1.60%. This pattern led to some experts arguing that it is not unusual for key technical levels to be retested this year.
Benjamin Cowen has pointed out the simple 20-week moving average time and again as a benchmark.
He believes that September is when prices tend to dip toward this level, before the fourth quarter recovery begins. Cowen thinks the recent drop in prices fits with the larger rhythm of earlier cycles.
Historically, #Bitcoin Finds a bottom in September, the first month after the half-year. Then bounces from it to the peak of the market in Q4. pic.twitter.com/CVbcPOUojM
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 3, 2025
Different Views on Cycle Consistency
Not all are convinced. Not everyone is convinced. The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin typically records gains between August and September before falling in October. September. But this time it was the reverse.
Bitcoin lost 6.25% in August. The coin’s performance in August 2017 was 64% higher than August 2021.
These two months of robust growth were followed each by a sharp decline in September. Analysts think that the current data indicates a new configuration, where macroeconomic factors such as rates cuts are more prominent than price movements.
When the Bottom is Already in
Some analysts are cautious, but others have a more optimistic outlook for the near future, stating that the Bitcoin low of September could already be in the past.
Asset opened at $108,200 and reached a peak of $110100 before falling to $107,000. According to analysts, the market is unlikely to reach new lows during this month.
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Cowen insists, however that corrections, even after new records are set, are a normal part of the market cycle. Cowen points out that August’s record high is evidence of the market following the same pattern as in previous years.
According to him, the decline towards the SMA of 20 weeks is not a sign that a rally will be strong at the end of the year but rather a set-up for one.
Most analysts, while continuing to debate the September outcome, agree that short-term volatility is unlikely alter the long term picture.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin’s price is likely to increase in coming years despite some temporary fluctuations.
Chart from TradingView, Featured Image from Meta
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
