Veteran chartist Peter Brandt ignited a fresh technical debate on X after publishing two annotated charts—one of today’s Bitcoin daily bars, the other of Chicago Board of Trade soybeans from 1977—arguing that the cryptocurrency may be carving out a broadening top akin to the historical commodity pattern that preceded a 50% collapse.
“In 1977 Soybeans formed a broadening top and then declined 50% in value,” Brandt wrote. “Bitcoin today is forming a similar pattern. A 50% decline in $BTC will put MSTR underwater. Whether I am right or wrong, you have to admit this old guy has the gonads to make big calls.”
What this Means for Bitcoin Price
Brandt’s comparison of side-by-side charts is at the heart of his argument. The chart of soybeans marks an “Ascending Megaphone” This chart showed a sharp lower resolution, while the current Bitcoin chart displays an increasing range with rising upper- and lower-trendlines. “sell zone” Near the middle range around $114 800. While the upper boundary sits just above $125,000, the lower trendline now tracks a descending band around $102,000–$100,000.
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BTC’s panel includes short-term averages of 8- and 18-18-periods, as well as an ADX that is modestly higher than normal. This panel captures the market volatility within a wider corridor and not a clear trend. Brandt’s rendition shows recent bounces stalled below a horizontal resistance zone, which is in line with the “sell zone” annotation.
The posting prompted immediate backlash from pattern specialists. Francis Hunt, of TheMarketSniper fame, said that similarity was superficial and the difference came down to the orientation of the megaphone. “If you have #HVFmethod you would notice whilst the broadening structures look the same. The Soybeans was an Ascending Megaphone on a bull trend => Bearish. Bitcoin is a Descending structure on a bull trend, eventually => Bullish. Place a splitter between each for net gradient.”
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Brandt’s view was framed as an hypothesis, not a fact, after a number of hours. “I am a Bayesian. I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not certainties. At any given time I have binary TA and macro narratives playing in my head — $250k Bitcoin or $60k Bitcoin. I consider all possibilities and look for asymmetrical bets in either direction.”
Hunt also acknowledged that he had a second alternative reading: “I’ll be first to admit you could be right. I am willing to go with it in either direction. If BTC goes up I want to be long, if it goes down I want to be short.”
Brandt’s second-order warning revolves around exposure. Strategy (MSTR), the business-intelligence firm that has accumulated the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, would, in his words, be “underwater” If BTC dropped by 50% from its current level. Based on its latest disclosure from this week, the average price of BTC purchased by the firm is $74,010 (inclusive all fees and costs). Total holdings are 640.418.0 BTC worth approximately $47.3 billion.
BTC is currently trading for $107.998.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
