Some derivatives traders have reduced their bets in Bitcoin. Open interest has barely moved — up just 1.50% to $55 billion — and more futures positions closed than opened in the past 24 hours. Volume decreased 21% from $30 billion. Market is still waiting.
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In the last year alone, buyers have been in control.
CryptoQuant has published findings that show the waiting is nearing an end. The findings of analyst Moreno were published. Bitcoin It is close to a test for two key metrics, which define its market structure from early 2024.
Reports indicate that the way it reacts to this test could be indicative of its next major move.
At the center of the analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV — a metric This measure measures the amount of gain or loss that recent buyers have accumulated.
Bitcoin is close to flipping the market structure
“A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026
It has been printing lower highs since early 2024 even though Bitcoin’s value is climbing to new heights. MVRV peaked at 1.4 when BTC reached $72,000 around March 2024. Bitcoin reached $106,000 in November 2024. But the MVRV did not reach its former high.
The pattern repeated in July 2025, when Bitcoin hit around $120,000 — yet the MVRV continued lower, tracing out a clear descending trendline. This trendline has been a ceiling for every rebound since.
MVRV has now reached the ceiling level again.
You need to reclaim a key cost level
At the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins.
This is an important level because it divides up the short-term investor base into profit and losses. Bitcoin traders who have recently bought the currency are likely to be under water and will sell at any price rise. Selling pressure is reduced when it’s trading above.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the Realized Price — paired with the MVRV holding above 1.0 — would mark a meaningful change in structure.
The price would then be able to move higher because recent buyers will no longer act as a drag. In contrast, if you don’t hold the price above the level set, then the structure remains the same.
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US Spot buyers are still on the sidelines
Continue to be cautious based on other data. Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, often used as a gauge of US institutional demand — sits at -0.018%.
The negative readings show that US spot buyers do not drive purchases. Bitcoin recovered briefly from its earlier lows, reaching $79,200. However, it has now pulled back to about $78,300.
Chart from TradingView, Featured Image from MetaAI
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
