CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno said that. Bitcoin It is likely that the market has already entered a bear phase after he flipped several of his indicator to a negative reading in early November.
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Moreno cited the slide below the one-year moving median as the most clear technical confirmation. He used this signal to suggest that a smaller trading range could be ahead.
Bitcoin Technical Signals and Market Mood
Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%.
The market momentum has been muted. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin started 2025 at $93,000 and peaked in October around $126,050. It ended the year lower than where it began. According to data available, trading hovered at $88,920 on Friday.
Derivatives show caution ahead of expiry
Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options Approaching expiry. There are reports that show the volume of derivatives fell 39% but open interest did not change. These numbers indicate a lack of aggressive trading by traders.
Technical measurements show that the price is near support. The traders are closely watching expiry, because there could be a large move when these contracts settle. Price action has been tighter and volatility is lower than previous sales.
The Institutional Accumulation and the Missing Shock
Moreno notes that there is a structural difference in the way things feel. Large institutions and regulated ETFs There is no evidence that these flows of money are being sold in panic.
This steady demand helped to prevent the cascading failures that occurred in 2022 when Terra, Celsius, and FTX all collapsed, amplifying losses on the entire market. This time around, prices have been moving downwards, but the market has not seen any big price drops.
Perspective Depends on Macro And Regulation
Analysts still believe that 2026 will bring new highs. They cite expected US rate reductions and an improved policy in Washington. As macro and regulatory changes are made, analysts will be watching Bitcoin to determine if its tighter connection with US stock prices holds.
The crypto market may begin to chart on its own, if correlations weaken. course. Bitcoin’s path could be heavily influenced by the broader markets than cryptocurrency-specific movements if it remains strong.
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What traders will watch
Based on reports and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiriesThe institutional buyer’s purchase pattern.
Although the price movement has been more calm than during past crises in some cases, this has obscured real downside risks. Analysts are divided; some predict a recovery in growth for next year. Others are prepared to lower prices until a sustained recovery.
Chart from TradingView, image by Unsplash.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
