Crypto analyst Astronomer @astronomer_zero has an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin for the fourth quarter 2024. Astronomer uses historical data to provide an overview of the future. analysis Via X, based on Bitcoin’s performance in September, an 82% chance of an extremely bullish trend is predicted.
Crypto analyst begins his report by highlighting the positive surprise of Bitcoin’s performance in September. “September is about to close and to the general public’s surprise, it’s looking like it’s going to be green (by a long shot), with the chance of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakout thesis we have been on for a while now,” He writes.
Delving into the. sentiment of the marketAstronomer observes a disconnect of significant proportions between the public’s perception and market position. “And although we’re not the only ones anymore that are on the full bull thesis, data is and remains data. And after thorough inspection, despite the talking/analysis posts, most are not positioned yet, took profit too early or will cheer for dips and say they are a gift for the reason of wanting one,” He clarified.
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Further, he elaborates the feeling within close circles. “This observation is not just coming from public posts or Twitter, but also from the array of paid groups partaken in to conduct these analyses. Not allowed to share names or details, but most groups indeed are long and took profit early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the market’s hand seems to be working.”
Bitcoin is likely to be bullish by 82%
Astronomer’s bullish theory is supported by historical data. This includes the fact that Bitcoin prices are cyclical. “The data analysis is fairly simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after, i.e., a green October, November, and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since BTC inception,” He asserts, indicating a seasonal pattern.
He is also quick to criticize his own methodology and admit the possible pitfalls that low sample sizes can bring: “Now like I said, I am not the biggest fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us only a 67% confidence to make the claim that the next three months will indeed be green (low data fallacy). But to add significance, by the binary nature of bullish/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, Q4 has not been green each month.”
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His thesis has been refined. “So, by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points is that: ‘The direction of September has determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59k, there is an 82% chance Q4 will be bullish’.”
This prediction sparked a discussion within the community. One user, @pieceofsheet99, commented sceptically and suggested the possibility of an unexpected decline. “If September turned out to be green to everyone’s surprise, October can also turn out to be red to everyone’s surprise as well.” Astronomer replied, reinforcing his trust in historical trends. “Indeed, but that’s not what we have seen typically. So, I personally, as always, stick to the data.”
Astronomer’s Analysis concludes with a note that is strategic optimistic, stressing the importance to align yourself more closely with market dynamics as well as historical patterns than on speculation. “How bullish? We will see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making fast money. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time after time, enjoying the market stress-free and not having too many regrets through losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (rather soon), you hit your goals.”
BTC is currently trading for $64,622.
Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
