According to the comments of the inventor of the stock to flow model, the familiar 4-year cycle linked to Bitcoin halves is no longer a reliable guide for traders.
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The analyst — known as PlanB — warned that using just three past cycles to predict future tops is risky, and he said the next peak is not guaranteed to fall 18 months after the last halving in October.
Cycling Timing Can Vary Widely
PlanB said that the top of the world could come in 2026. Or 2027. or 2028. And that his focus is on Bitcoin’s Average price is more important than a high or low.
Some reports have revealed that market participants think BTC’s peak is $126,000 and believe it will drop below $100,000 by next year. PlanB called it. “a big misunderstanding,” Arguments that argue three cycles don’t form a statistically significant pattern.
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!?
IMO this is a big misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025
Spot Versus Paper Liquidity
Experts claim that the top of the previous bull market was largely driven by the short-term liquidity on paper derivative markets.
Based on the reports they have received, it appears that this cycle will see less paper liquidity, while spot purchasing for long-term has been held steady. This shift may mean that the next big price move will be coming from a different place than it was before.
Prices Moves Can Change the Trader’s Sentiment
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $10,000 $103,000 Last week, there were fears that the bear market was underway. Analysts noted that sentiment changed quickly — traders were hoping for a bounce so they could exit at a decent level.
The recent action was bouncy. Bitcoin fell more than 3% in a short time on Tuesday’s morning Asian trading. It dropped to around $107,000, before finding traction near $108,000.
The Phase Transition is not yet clear
PlanB stated that he had not yet seen any clear “phase transition” Bitcoin will be a big winner in this current cycle. This means that either the institutionally-driven big jump is yet to come, or market conditions have changed toward a more stable price regime, shaped by funds and mandates.
He argued that both possibilities could prove positive over the long term for Bitcoin because they suggest different types of durable demand.
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The short-term volatility of the market has left traders anxious. The mood can change quickly, even when prices recover. According to reports, the crypto market still needs stronger fundamentals or sustainable flows in order to calm nerves.
Gemini chart and featured image by TradingView
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
