Could XRP reach $11? Analyst Cheeky Crypto has put a probability of 53% on an uptrend from the descending widening wedge in the monthly chart. This technical analysis is based on a pattern that’s been developing since January 2025 when XRP reached its peak of $3.40. The breakout odds are just above coin toss, making this a very difficult set-up to understand. If the wedge breakout occurs, the expansion targets can range anywhere from $7 to $11, and forecasts for the year 2026 depend almost entirely on the ability of XRP to return back up above $3.00.
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XRP Predictions, Wedge Patterns Risks and Breakout Odds Analysis
This is what the chart structure shows right now
The descending wedge formation isn’t something that most traders pay much attention to. As the chart shows, it expands instead of narrowing, as both highs and lowers get more extreme with time. Cheeky Crypto highlighted that the latest 11.6% fall since May 14, actually fits in with the existing structure and not breaks it. XRP’s lows between April 2020 and February 2026 were $1.61 and $1.37. These values formed the lower edge of the wedge.
Cheeky Crypto stated:
“The current structure looks like a Descending Broadening Wedge. This is NOT a random formation. Historically, these structures often produce: Final capitulation THEN Violent expansion.”
How to Target $11 in XRP
Currently, two price levels are most important. The $1.11 support level is crucial on the downside. It’s also where the buyers were most active during the crash of February 2026. In the event that XRP falls below this level, then a fall to approximately $0.32 is a possibility. This would represent a significant 71% decrease. Cheeky Crypto estimated that the chance of it happening is 43%.
The $3.00 level is where everything changes on the bullish side. This is the upper edge of the wedge, and it’s a close confirmed above this level that opens up the range of $7 to $11 at the heart of our 2026 forecast for XRP. XRP currently trades below the $7 to $11 mark. The odds of a breakout are very close.
What the 53% Breakout odds actually mean for traders
The $11 target price for XRP is backed by history, but just barely. Cheeky Crypto pointed out that this structure is resolved upwards approximately 54% the time when volatility expands. And the technical analysis flagged the fact that a 43% downward scenario should not be ignored. The traders were also warned about the emotional fatigue and likelihood of another sharp event in volatility before any larger move occurs. If it happens, the XRP wedge breakout may not be clean or quick.
The Cheeky crypto also warns:
“$XRP may still face more chop, emotional exhaustion, and one final volatility event before a larger move.”
Whether or not XRP reaches the $11 mark, this setup represents one of most accurate reads on the current market. Analysts and traders are closely watching the $1.11 level and the $3.00 mark to determine which direction this will go.
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Source: watcher.guru
