Bitcoin is entering the last day of this quarter with a tightly wound coil of macro and technical catalysts. Traders are fixated on several levels which will set the tone of October. Ostium Research’s outlook for the week ahead frames this setup as one that is fading “window of weakness” Markets can enjoy a possible Q4 tailwind but only if they navigate a busy calendar of events without losing support. As author Nik Patel puts it, “weekly momentum is still supportive of higher prices and I believe we are now emerging from the window of weakness I had marked out from Friday 20th Sept.”
Bitcoin levels indicate explosive October
Last week’s price rejection near the August open of $112,000 was followed by a rapid slide down to low $108,000s and then a bounce into Sunday’s closing. The weekly chart shows a positive trend, although Patel cautions that the quarter’s end could be a bearish one. October turnA large number of recent data points can increase volatility.
It is obvious that his base case is correct. “I think any dip you get this week is one you want to look at as an opportunity for longs for the remainder of Q4,” he adds that any concerns over a top of the cycle in October is misplaced, given “tailwinds into mid-Dec.” Mid-cycle risks are around $99,000. Long-term invalidation will be tied to a 360-day average moving near $97.900. “Unless we lose $99k on a weekly close, nothing here looks mid-term bearish to me,” Patel states.
Read Related Articles
After the 112,000 dollar rejection on the daily chart the market made a lower low of approximately $107,000. This kept the short term structure in a positive state. Patel’s upward trigger is accurate: “If we do now push higher off this low through the rest of this week to close back above the August open and trendline resistance up near $115.7k, I think it is very unlikely you see $107k–$108k retested in October.” In contrast, he emphasizes the downward waypoint of a sudden volatility surge: “I think the lowest we see this week is the 200dMA at $104.6k on a major flush of the lows.”
He sketches a tactical map that gives both bulls and bears a job to do, often within the same trading session. The long-term, he prefers fading the stop-hunt below last week’s open or to the September low. “with invalidation on a close below the 360-day moving average, currently at $97.9k, below which we have not closed since March 2023.”
When the markets begin to squeeze, the author outlines the switch-hitter strategy: an even sharper rise into the close of the third quarter. “takes out the $114k high into Oct 1st,” A fade is then followed on a divergence in bearish direction. “for at least $110k, if not $108.5k into the weekend,” He’s ready to flip it long once more.
Read Related Articles
The macro picture can complicate an otherwise ordered technical picture. Patel believes the dollar will overextend and then roll over. This would increase risk in Q4: Last week’s post-FOMC Dollar bid “short-lived,” With DXY “99 as the highest I am expecting,” If momentum falls below the open of September, a bigger move towards 93 is expected in Q4. In the equities market, he expects “a little choppier” While October may be less volatile than cryptocurrency, it still presents dips in the year-end as opportunities.
The derivatives and positioning context support the directional perspective. Patel highlights snapshots from Velo and CoinGlass as well as Bitcoin and altcoin open interests on an annualized basis. Then, he overlays liquidation clusters that are expected to occur in one-week or one-month time frames. It is clear that the volatility of this week will likely be the beginning, and not the end, to the fourth quarter. “The opportunity for those lows to be cleaned up should be over the next 5–7 days,” Notes he. “If we run last week’s low and then reclaim on the lower timeframes, that could be the October low forming early.”
Bitcoin’s riddle in the near term is not so much about trend decline as it is about the choreography of an upheaval. Over $112,000 buyers will be able to quickly move towards the pivot of $115700. Beyond that point, the story about all-time highs takes center stage. Sweep the lows first and hold the $104,600–$107,000 shelf, and the market may be laying its October floor. The market would be impacted by a weekly closing below $99,000. Q4 bull case Patel lays out the week’s map for his readers. “You should not get bear-holed,” “It is a good thing to be able to write.” As such, I expect any dip to occur between now and this weekend. This is when an October low will be formed.
BTC was trading at $113.248 as of the time this article went to press.
Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
“ItsDailyCrypto is not responsible for any activities you perform outside ItsDailyCrypto.”
Source: www.newsbtc.com
