Bitcoin Prices to Rise in July?

Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency, is on its way to becoming the most valuable currency in the world. worst monthly loss BTC has fallen by approximately 18.5% between mid-2022 and June, as it struggles to keep the psychological $60,000.00 support level.

BTC/USD chart for the month. Source: TradingView

Is Bitcoin preparing to recover or will the downward momentum continue in July?

The key take-aways

• Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows that there is a significant short-liquidation “magnet zone” Nearly $67,600.
• BTC’s average July return has been 7.6%, but the midterm year seasonality indicates an even higher 10.3%.

Bitcoins may reach $75,000 in July

The month of July is a “bullish month for Bitcoin,” Analyst FlehPeople who predict that BTC will rise toward $75,000 in the next month.

This bullish hypothesis is based upon Binance’s BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap. It shows that there are many levels of liquidation above the current Bitcoin price.

In the monthly chart the largest visible cluster of liquid assets is near $66,445 where it shows approximately $247,39 million liquidation leverage as well as roughly $2,26 billion short liquidation leverage.

Heatmap of Binance BTC/USDT (one month). Source: CoinGlass

These clusters of cells are commonly called Beginner’s Clusters. “magnet zones.” The market may move towards a price zone where many positions with leverage are concentrated because of the liquidation pressure.

This is a case where significant liquidity exists above Bitcoin’s current value of around $60,000.

Short sellers could be forced to end their short positions if BTC rallies and pushes towards $67,600. As closing shorts involves buying Bitcoin back, this can fuel an upside squeeze and add new pressure.

“I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower,” Fleh wrote in an article on Saturday.

BTC increases 7.6% averagely in July

Fleh’s optimistic July forecast is supported by Bitcoin’s monthly historical returns.

BTC gained 7.6% on average during July. It was one of the strongest months for BTC after June which had a typical weak return, averaging -1.40%. According to CoinGlass’ data highlighted by analysts CGT_Trader.

Bitcoin returns for July 2013: Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader

This trend is evident even in bear markets.

Bitcoin for instance rose 20.96% in July 2018, and 16.8% in July 2012. BTC has gained more recently 2.95% and 8.13% respectively in July of 2024. This is a strong indication that another month will be green.

The chart of seasonality for the mid-term year also shows- Bitcoin’s average monthly gain was 10.3%, which is its highest return ever in these years.

Bitcoin’s performance during the US midterm elections. More Crypto Online

This compares to an average loss of 17% in June. It suggests the possibility that a mean-reversion rebound could occur after a sell-off.

On the basis of Bitcoin’s present price, which is near $60,000. Its historical return for July of 7.6% predicts a rise to approximately $64,500. However, the midterm year average, at 10.3%, points towards about $66,100.

If Bitcoin were to repeat the bear market July rallies of 2022 or 2018, it would be worth between $72,500 and $70,000, while Fleh’s target of $75,000 would become a reality with a July rally in line with 2020.

BTC’s drop below 200-week SMA could extend the slide

Bitcoin’s continuing drop below the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA, blue line) around $62,445 increases the risk of further downward movement in July.

BTC/USD chart for the week. TradingView

A similar decline in long-term average support was preceded by deeper weakness at the beginning of 2022’s bear market. BTC fell further before it formed a bottom.

Related: Bitcoin faces fresh capitulation risk as 50K BTC moved at a loss

Bitcoin’s bear-flag breakdown increases the likelihood of a decline in price to $55,000 by July, unless BTC quickly recovers the 200 day SMA.

BTC/USD Daily Chart TradingView