Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline in the past couple of days. Today, after trading at $96,000 Monday, the price of Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first since November 11, 2011. The rapid drop represents a near 18% decline since the beginning of the week. Bitcoin is down 27% from its high value of $109-588 reached on January 20.
A number of factors are combining to put downward pressure on cryptocurrency. There are several factors that have converged to exert downward pressure on cryptocurrency. These include newly implemented Trump tariffs as well large-scale withdrawals from BTC spot ETFs. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 16 in the last week.”Extreme Fear”), some analysts note that these conditions could also be setting the stage for the next significant move––be it further downside or a potential rebound.
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What is the lowest Bitcoin can go?
Scott Melker is a well-known crypto analyst. “The Wolf Of All Streets,” highlights Divergence developing on different timeframes. Melker wrote the following in a blog post: “BTC 4-HOUR: Bullish divergence still building after the hidden bearish divergence I was watching for. This could fail, obviously, but RSI is holding up well. If you have been following me for years, this is my favorite signal when confirmed. Oversold RSI with bullish divs building over multiple timeframes.”
Tony is a technical analyst “The Bull” Severino CMT, (@tonythebullBTC). believes The market could be following a similar pattern to that of 2021 or 2022. He says this pattern “could get an extended fifth of a fifth situation that takes us well into late 2025.” “He added that “this does mean this could go a lot lower than many are expecting, to about $75,000 if the same higher degree fractal is followed to the 0.5 Fib retracement.”
Severino warns traders about Severino’s warnings “do not want to see Bitcoin tag the monthly Parabolic SAR, currently located at $75,742,” A breach could indicate a more severe correction. He anticipates that by the end of each month the Parabolic SAR may rise a little, possibly pushing the support zone to the lower $80,000s.
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Josh Olszewicz of @CarpeNoctom tracks the Ichimoku Cloud in order to get key insight. He points Referencing a possible test of Bitcoin’s kijun weekly, “weekly kijun support at 74k if we keep going.” Olszewicz notes Bitcoin last tapped the weekly kijun during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024—an event that saw heightened volatility across global markets.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) draws Similarities with past market cycles, when Bitcoin’s Daily RSI dipped below the 20-level: “The last time BTC was this ‘oversold’ [at 20] on the Daily RSI was back in August 2023 when it was trading at $25K. The time before that was after the FTX implosion at the bear market bottom in late 2022. Short term this means little but it should start peaking your interest.”
Binance futures were also the subject of significant orders to buy. “BTC ~$1.8 Billion in Bids has appeared on the Binance futures pair. These bids are sitting between $70K-$79K. What happens when bids like these appear is varied. Sometimes price never moves into them, when it does start hitting them, it often fills a lot of them before (shortly) reversing. Keep in mind, these are bids that can just as easily be pulled away. Highlighting this as it’s an insane amount and this is something you rarely ever see.”
Ki Young Ju CEO of CryptoQuant highlights the role liquidity in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. He noted spot volume was “highly active around $100K,” But explain that “prices drop when new liquidity dries up.” Ju’s key question: Where will new liquidity come from when the market has already entered a phase of distribution?
He sees the possibility of a long-term consolidation between “$75K-$100K,” This is similar to Bitcoin’s early 2024 price range. A range like this could last until at least fresh catalyst emerges. “We’ll likely see an extended consolidation in the wide range (e.g., $75K-100K), similar to early 2024, imo. This could last until some good news for Bitcoin brings in new liquidity,” Ju predicts.
BTC was trading at $78.856 as of the time this article went to press.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
