Bitcoin struggles to sustain a correlation with Gold. It has only recently moved in sync during times of market decline. Examining Bitcoin’s price By viewing the market through the gold lens rather than the USD, a complete picture is revealed. We can determine potential support levels by comparing Bitcoin’s real purchasing power to comparable assets. This will allow us to gauge the end of the bear market.
Bitcoin Bear Market officially Begins Below Key Resistance
Bitcoin fell by approximately 20% after breaking below the psychologically significant 6-figure and 350-day moving averages at around $100,000. Trading below the 350-day moving average is a sign of a bear market. Bitcoin fell by approximately 20% immediately after. The Golden Ratio Multiplier Moving averages have historically shown that Bitcoin is entering a bear-cycle, but the story becomes much more compelling when measured in relation to Gold instead of USD.
Bitcoin’s chart versus gold tells an entirely different tale than that of the USD. Bitcoin reached its highest point in December 2024. Since then, it has fallen over 50%. In contrast, the USD peaked at the end of October 2025. That is a significant drop from the year prior. The divergence between the USD and Bitcoin valuations suggests that Bitcoin has been in a down market much longer than many observers think. We can observe patterns when we measure historical Bitcoin cycles in Gold. This suggests that the current decline may have already reached critical support areas.
The bear cycle of 2015 bottomed out at an 86 % retracement over 406 days. The cycle of 2017 saw a decline of 84% over 364-days. Previous bear cycles saw a decline of 76% in 399 days. At the moment of this analysis Bitcoin has fallen 51% over 350 days in comparison to Gold. The percentage declines in Bitcoin have decreased as the market capitalisation has grown and new money is flowing into the market. However, this does not reflect a change fundamental to cycle dynamics.
Bitcoin bear market bottom approaching with multi-cycle confluence
Fibonacci Retracement Levels mapped out across several cycles offer greater accuracy than just relying on time and percentage drawdowns. Fibonacci tools used from the bottom up across historic cycles reveal striking confluence.
In the 2015-2018 bear market cycle, the bottom was at the Fibonacci 0.618% level. This corresponded with approximately 2,56 ounces Gold for Bitcoin. This price movement marked the bottom in a way that was far more clear than on the USD chart. The bear market bottom was almost exactly aligned with the 0.5% level, which is approximately 9.74 ounces Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.
Translation of Bitcoin Bear Market gold ratios back to USD price targets
Between the last bear market’s low and the highest point of this bull cycle, the Fibonacci 0.618 level is equivalent to approximately 22.81 Ounces Gold per Bitcoin. The Fibonacci 0.5 level, on the other hand, rests around 19.07 Ounces. The current price is nearing the middle of these levels and may represent an ideal accumulation area from a purchasing-power perspective.
Fibonacci numbers from multiple cycles can create confluence. The current cycle’s 0.786 Fibonacci level equates to about 21.05 Oz of Gold. This corresponds to Bitcoin prices around $89,000. The previous 0.618-level is also aligned near $80,000. If Bitcoin continues to drop, these convergence zones would suggest the next technical goal is $67,000. It comes from the Fibonacci level of 0.382, which corresponds with approximately 15,95 ounces Gold for each Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bear Market: 90% Already Complete
Bitcoin is likely to have been in a bearish market much longer than USD analysis would suggest. The purchasing power of Bitcoin, when compared with Gold or other similar assets, has already declined significantly since December 20, 2024. Fibonacci historical retracement level, converted to USD, and properly calibrated for multiple cycles suggests that a support convergence could be found in the range of $67,000 to $80.000. Although this is a theoretical analysis and will not be carried out perfectly, it does indicate that the end of the bearish market could come sooner than expected.
Here is our most recent video on YouTube for an in-depth view of this topic: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already
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This is not financial advice. Disclaimer: The information contained in this article should only be used for educational purposes. Do your research prior to making investment decisions.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
