Bitcoin, on a higher time frame appears to be still in a bearish environment. It has lost 21.7% of its value from January’s all-time record high.
When slightly zoomed-in, however, the asset shows a steady and gradual rebound, surging by 6.8% over the last week, bringing its asset close to the psychological $90.000 mark, with the current trading price hovering around $85,000.
This is the latest analysis CryptoQuant Analyst Crypto Dan offers some context for the cautious optimism. The post entitled “Why does this cycle feel so boring?”Dan pointed out that the current bull cycle, in contrast to previous cycles which were characterized by fast rallies with a surge of interest from those who are short term investors, is more stable. appears subdued.
What is different about the current cycle?
One major indicator supporting Dan’s observation is the notably lower percentage of Bitcoin held for short durations (1 week to 1 month), reflecting minimal engagement from newer market entrants. Dan attributes the behavioral change to two major structural changes. First, the macroeconomic context.
The opposite of the aggressive liquidity injections and near-zero interest rates of the 2020–2021 period, the current market faces tight liquidity and high interest rates, reducing the pace and scale of capital inflows. The second is a shift in the market’s leadership, from retail traders to institutions.
Bitcoin ETFs have become more popular and are gaining acceptance. This has changed the way capital moves into this space. Price movements now tend to be measured.
In the end, this has led to many problems. market’s development It is much more conservative, and lacks the usual euphoria of previous cycles. Dan stressed that, while certain on-chain metrics could suggest a top of the cycle, current market structure may instead point to a longer and more gradual evolution.
In these circumstances, he suggested that patience over short-term speculation may be more beneficial.
In times like this, what matters most isn’t chasing quick pumps— It’s understanding the slower structure and having the patience to stay with it.
The strength of Bitcoin on-chain metrics despite an unusual cycle
CryptoQuant’s other analyst, elcryptotavo, also supports the longer-term outlook. noted This key metric on the chain remains solid. According to his analysis, over 70% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit—a level historically associated with price stability.
This measure tracks the percent of BTC in circulation with a price below current market value. Supply-in-profit that is consistently high, and especially over 70% has been used to support many cryptocurrency projects. further upward momentum.
Elcryptotavo has been added to the next target This metric should be pushed back to 80%, as this would strengthen the bullish trend and sustain it.
Bitcoin may see a renewed surge in value even if there is no speculative excitement, if the threshold of $20,000 can be reached along with improving macro conditions.
Chart created by TradingView, DALL-E.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
