As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Sam Daodu is a market expert who believes the past offers useful clues.
Bitcoins not going to collapse in a systemic way this time.
Daodu notes Bitcoin’s steep corrections is nothing new. More than 20 Bitcoin pullbacks of more that 40% have occurred since 2011. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends.
Bitcoin typically returns to its previous highs after 14 months in situations when there is no market breakdown. He contrasts today’s environment with the one in 2022, which saw multiple structural problems shake the crypto industry.
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As of now, the financial system is not experiencing a similar crisis. Analysts highlighted the fact that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level.
Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment.
Historical Selloffs: A look Back
During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The decline coincided with the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve as well as the collapse the Terra (Luna ecosystem). FTX’s bankruptcy.
Bitcoin finally took 28 months to reach its highest point, in March of 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers.
The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. Bitcoin fell by 58% in March that same year. It went from $9,100 down to just $3,800. Global lockdowns caused a liquid shock.
Bitcoin bounced back quickly. Bitcoin recovered the $10,000 in six weeks. It reached its previous high of $20,000 around nine months later, by December 2020. It took roughly 21 months for the eventual rise to $69,000, in November 2021.
A new contrast is presented by the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin fell from $20,000 (December 2017) to $3200 (December 2018), a 84% drop. In December 2018, Bitcoin’s value dropped by 84%, from $20,000 to $3200. initial coin offering The (ICO) boom combined with the regulatory crackdowns, and restricted institutional participation has drained speculative energies from the market.
Miners had to give up as revenue dropped. Active addresses fell by 70 percent. Bitcoin needed nearly three full years without significant capital or an appealing growth story to reach its prior peak.
Not Capitulation Yet
A critical factor is the level of withdrawal. In the past, it has taken approximately nine to fourteen months to correct corrections between 40% and 50%, while collapses above 80% took three years.
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With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation.
He estimates, on the basis of previous episodes, that it could take up to 12 months for a return of those highs. The macroeconomic situation will ultimately determine how fast that recovery occurs.
BTC traded at $68,960 as of this writing. This was after a slight recovery on Friday, with a 5 percent increase, in order to try and surpass the short-term wall resistance at $70,000.
Featured picture from OpenArt; chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
