The key takeaways
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The odds of today’s Fed rate cut are 100%.
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BTC could reach new highs in the future if $118,000, which is a key level of resistance, is overcome.
BitcoinBTC() reached a new four-week record high of $117,000 Wednesday as traders anticipated price fluctuations before and after US interest rate cut policy announcement.
There is a 100% chance that interest rates will be reduced.
According to CME, there is 96% probability that the FOMC will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. There’s a 4% chance they could reduce them by 50 basis points. FedWatch tool.
Also, Polymarket offers betters. locked in a 25bps decrease for the FOMC Meeting, at 93%. Odds for a reduction of 50bps at 5%.
Related: Bitcoin stuck at $116K resistance until ‘decisively reclaimed,’ says Bitfinex
Both the CME and Polymarket odds are pointing to a path of three cuts by the end.
There are still some commentators who say any volatility in the market price due to interest rate cuts is a frightful thing. already priced in.
The focus of traders has now shifted to Jerome Powell, the Fed chair’s address after the FOMC. Powell, who was under pressure from President Donald Trump In the past, lower interest rates were previously hinted at interest cutsSaying the current inflation rate and the labor market situation Garanted Adjustments
Powell will be closely watched by the market at the FOMC’s news conference for any change in his tone.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps cut priced in,” said Swissblock, a private wealth manager in X’s Tuesday posting said that traders would be focusing their attention on “Powell’s stance under the spotlight for hints.”
Swissblock managers added that in either case, volatility was guaranteed.
“Bitcoin’s Risk Index will guide whether BTC’s bullish structure holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon.”

Bitcoin Analyst AlphaBTC stated that BTC price could first rise to $118,000 On Wednesday, before you retrace your steps after FOMC’s decision has been confirmed.
What is next for BTC?
Bitcoin must flip resistance at $118,000 into support Continue its upward trend toward new highs, and then into the discovery of prices.
“Bitcoin keeps slowly grinding higher, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance area,” said Jelle, a crypto analyst in X on Wednesday.
“Break 118K and hold above it, and new all-time highs are next.”

The following data is from Cointelegraph Markets Pro The following are some examples of how to get started: TradingView BTC Price “attacking” According to MN Capital’s founder Michael van de Poppe, the resistance is between $117.500 and $118.500. This is an excellent sign.
“Quite usually it’s just a run before a drop.”
#Bitcoin Attacking the range resistance before FOMC can be an excellent sign.
It’s usually just a short run prior to a big drop.
We’ll see.
This is going to be a lot of fun! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025
Van de Poppe’s analyses suggested that by removing resistance in the area of $118,000, a surge could be initiated towards the $120,000 mark and then to the all-time highs at $124,500.
The price range has been between $116.800 to $114.500 between September 10th and Tuesday.
The next step would be to retest the psychological $112,000 level. This is also the simple 100-day moving average.
The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.
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Source: cointelegraph.com

