US Iran Ceasefire boosts Bitcoin and Stocks: Can it hold?

The key take-aways

• Bitcoin and stock markets were boosted by the US-Iran ceasefire, but BTC derivatives indicate a limited bullish trend.

• The legislative setbacks “fragile truce” Bears are active as a possible $68,000 correction is on the cards.

BitcoinBTC() rose 6% within four hours, Tuesday. This was in response to gains on global stock exchanges after US-Iran reached a ceasefire agreement for two weeks. This unexpected rally took traders by surprise, leading to a massive $280 million in liquidation of Bitcoin futures.

BTC derivatives indicate that sustained bullish momentum over $80,000 may take longer than expected.

Bitcoin’s high correlation with the S&P 500 futures suggests that BTC’s rally was mainly led by the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced that Iran will deactivate its nuclear program in exchange for relief from tariffs and sanctions. Bitcoin’s bears were boosted by US Vice President JDVance. said The Iran ceasefire agreement is not a “fragile truce.”

Bitcoin derivatives metrics weakening and inflation pressure persisting

Unstable de-escalation could lead to lower prices for oil and less inflationary pressure. This would pave the way for more expansionist monetary policy. Despite signs of an improving job market, the US Federal Reserve remains reluctant to reduce interest rates. The odds of an economic shock were decreasing, so traders who had previously exited the risk market changed their mind.

BTC derivatives positions did not change significantly despite $280 million of forced liquidations on bearish leveraged position.

On Wednesday, the aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest was 593.930 BTC. This is a 2.5% increase from Tuesday. Liquidations of between $200 million and $300 million, which have occurred at least five times within the past 90-day period, are not uncommon. The $280 million is a small amount compared with the $42 billion total aggregate futures positions.

On Wednesday, the Bitcoin futures premium relative to spot markets was 3%. This is unchanged from the two previous days. Since late January, the lack of demand in bullish positions has driven the indicator under the neutral 4% threshold.

In the past 2 weeks, Bitcoin downside protection options have been in high demand. The premiums for put options (sold) have been higher than those of call (buy) instruments. However, they are still below the fear-levels seen in March.

Will regulatory hurdles nix the  Bitcoin rally?

The flash crash of Oct. 10,2025, disappointments with regulations and lack progress in the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve had already affected the confidence of Bitcoin bulls. The PARITY Act’s latest draft failed to include tax exemptions You can defer capital gains or small Bitcoin payments for mining. David Sacks also resigned from his position as White House spokesperson AI and cryptocurrency czar On March 26, 2019.

Related: Iran is weighing crypto tolls for ships using Strait of Hormuz–Report

Scott Bessent, US Treasury secretary in 2025 made numerous mentions of the topic. “budget neutral” No clear strategy was revealed to purchase Bitcoins without adding additional taxes. When the US Democratic Party requested that regulators simultaneously scrutinize the Trump family’s Cryptocurrency ventures that are based on possible conflicts of interests.

Bitcoin shorts have not been rushing to cover their positions, despite the recent rise. Brent crude oil is still holding at $95 a barrel, despite the recent rally. The price was $72 a barrel late in February. A two-week truce is not a solution for the long term, and it leaves open the possibility of a $68,000 correction.