The key Bitcoin volatility indicator (BTC() has contracted to its tightest measure on record. This pattern was followed by an extended rally during previous bull or bear markets. The Bollinger Bands will the Bollinger Bands again call the bottom?
Compression of the Bollinger band for Bitcoins on record indicates volatility
Dorkchicken, a crypto analyst, analyzes monthly Bitcoin charts. noted Bollinger Bands from BTC have reached their highest level yet “tightest” The highest level ever recorded. These conditions are known to lead to bullish breaks, and the previous downtrend was in 2022 during the fall to $16,000 ($20,000) from $20,000,000.
Bollinger Bands measures price volatility. Extreme compression leads to sharp expansion. Analyst added that the odds are better for an upward trend to begin once it begins.
Nunya BIZZI, the Bitcoin trader on the other hand, is a proponent of this. pointed On the 3-day chart, a death cross is approaching between 50 and 200 period simple moving averages (SMA). When the short-term moving-average falls below the long-term average it signals weak momentum.
In the last three cases, this pattern has shown a drawdown of approximately 50% in the one-to-six month period following and coincided with the final capitulation phase.
The same path could indicate a bottom near $33,000 between March-August. BTC, according to the trader, has been below $89800 for 110 days. The price of BTC has been below the $89,800 short-term holder cost basis for 110 days.
Ardi is a market analyst. noted Retail traders’ exposure to long-term futures has increased from $88,000 per dip, up to $68,000. Presently, 72% tracked retail accounts have long positions in an descending trendline.
This is a sign of early market optimism. However, every recent rise in long position has been accompanied by a rapid selloff. Positioning is now at a high level, and these longs will be vulnerable to being liquidated if price drops.
Related: Bitcoin ‘roadmap to bottom’ says $58.7K Binance cost basis now crucial
BTC’s Sharpe Ratio is intriguing, but $70,000 still remains the threshold to crack
MorenoDV, the Crypto-Analyst said Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio dropped to -38.38. This is the same level as in 2015, 2019 and late 2022.
Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns. Deeply negative readings indicate periods of volatility and deep drawdown. The analyst noted that each extremely low signal aligned with major cycle lows and led to BTC rallies. “generational buy zone.”
Glassnode data Calls for confirmation via a greater BTC demand absorbency. Each move over $70,000 has been stalled since early February as net realized profits have exceeded $5,000,000 per hour.
Glassnode also stated that Q3 of 2025 saw profits between $200 million and 350 millions per hour. This did not halt the progress to reach new highs.
Related: ‘Resilient’ Bitcoin holders defend BTC, but bear floor sits 20% lower: Glassnode
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Source: cointelegraph.com
