Three catalysts that could push bitcoin beyond $120K

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin is benefiting from the record global growth in money supply.

• Bitcoin Spot ETFs are likely to surpass gold in the near future, which will boost BTC’s position as a reserve currency.

• Retail inflows are limited, but could spark a rally if interest from the mainstream returns.

BitcoinBTCLast traded on 23 July at $120,000, traders began to doubt whether an all-time record could still be reached this year.

The sustainability of global economic instability artificial intelligence The sector remains one of the most risky sectors.

Even so, there are three key drivers that could propel Bitcoin to a market cap of $2.3 trillion or more.

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s valuation will exceed gold, which is valued at $23 trillion. However, others claim it will be much more difficult to fully decouple Bitcoin from the tech stock market as its use remains very early.

Nvidia’s (NVDA), even if the investor perception doesn’t change, is laying down the foundation for a paradigm shift.

Bitcoin trading like Nvidia Strategy, Metaplanet and Metaplanet

Nvidia’s valuation soared from $2.3 trillion to $4.4 trillion, even though its most recent quarterly net income was flat when compared with six months ago.

Investors could be placing bets on higher earnings in the future, or value metrics might be losing their relevance because governments will be expected to increase spending. accelerate monetary expansion Due to the mounting fiscal debt

The global M2 money supply among the 21 largest banks has reached $55.5 trillion, a new record. However, in nine months the US federal budget deficit reached $1.3 trillion.

Even if BTC’s relative strong correlation to tech stocks persists, such conditions would support Bitcoin bulls.

Retail inflows are still high. are still largely absent Bitcoin is still expected to grow despite its 116% growth over the last 12 months.

The gap compared to the S&P 500’s 22% annual return acts as a magnet for new capital, particularly as the cryptocurrency gains traction in mainstream media with companies like Strategy MetaPlanet and (MSTR), two of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges, are making headlines.

Related: Bitcoin company Metaplanet kicks off August with first big buy

At the moment, cryptocurrency apps like Coinbase and Robinhood do not show much excitement from retail investors. Both remain outside of the top-10. This was achieved last in November 2024.

Even though the trigger for renewed retail interests is unknown, there remains significant room for a retail rally to occur in 2025. This is especially so as both traditional finance and US government embrace Bitcoin.

Bitcoin gets 401(k) green light

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order The government of Canada announced on Thursday that cryptocurrency and other alternatives assets can be added to 401(k), retirement savings accounts.

Michael Heinrich, CEO and co-founder of 0G Labs said that the 401(k), rule change can be beneficial. “unlock trillions in retirement capital for Bitcoin.”

Matt Hougan is the chief investment officer at Bitwise. He said this change may be transformational for the entire industry.

As of July 2025 the assets held by US exchange-traded Bitcoin funds are $150 billion, while gold instrument assets will be $198 billion. according Forbes.

When spot Bitcoin ETFs exceed gold’s equivalent, this could cement the perception of Bitcoin as a currency rather than merely a commodity. a risk-on trade.

As Bitcoin becomes more relevant as a currency for governments, sovereign wealth fund, and public companies as well as their reserves, it is likely that institutional investors will add Bitcoin to their portfolios. Bitcoin is on a trajectory that will lead to a new high by 2025, even though the exact timing of this rise remains unclear.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. These are solely the opinions, views, and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.