Takeaways from the conference:
- Oil prices are surging and producer inflation is on the rise. This has led traders to assume a tighter US Fed policy.
- Bitcoin ETF spot outflows were massive in June, indicating that cryptocurrency does not act at present as a market hedge.
In the week leading up to 10 June, Nasdaq’s 100 index dropped by 7.5% and $2.7 trillion was lost in value. It is equivalent to more than two-thirds of the Bitcoin (BTC), and it has traders alerted, particularly as the inflation numbers are feeling the pressure from the high oil price. Now, traders are worried that Bitcoin’s support level near $60,000.00 is at risk.
Nasdaq 100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Brent crude prices have risen to $90 because of the war in Iran. Investors fear an economy slowdown. They are pricing in a more restrictive monetary policy than they had anticipated. The money that is available to spend tends not to increase, regardless of how the economy performs.
US Labor Department announced Thursday that the producer price index rose 6.5% since May 2025. This is its highest level in 2022. CME data shows that traders now expect 40% of the US Fed to increase interest rates by September. This is up from just 5% a month ago. FedWatch Tool.
Bitcoin Futures 2-Month Annualized Basis Rate Source: Laevitas
Bitcoin futures traded Thursday below the neutral premium of 4% relative to spot markets, which indicates a low level of demand for leverage. SpaceX’s (SPCX US), a $75 billion IPO, has been oversubscribed more than twice, indicating investors still have hope for further tech growth.
The market’s negative reaction is partly due to the desperate need for cash by AI infrastructure firms. Google (GOOG US), Oracle (ORCL US), and Super Micro Computers (SMCI US), followed with plans for $80 billion. SpaceX’s Friday IPO will set the stage for upcoming IPOs.
Select AI stock performance. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph
After SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation, it seems premature to label the AI industry a bubble. The US stock market also responded positively when US President Donald Trump cancelled planned attacks on Iran citing new negotiations to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
Stop to strategy accumulation amid Bitcoin ETF withdrawals
The decline of Bitcoin coincided with Strategy (MSTR US’s) decision to temporarily stop its Bitcoin accumulation in order to reduce convertible loans. Strategy’s position in cash declined, but its shares of preferred Stretch (STRC US), which are a variable, were still above the $100 threshold that allows for equity issuance.
US-listed Bitcoin Spot ETFs, daily net flows. Source: SoSoValue
In June, the $1.9 billion of outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) reinforced bearish sentiment. The indicator is a proxy measure for institutional demand. Bitcoin is not a good hedge for an inevitable stock market crash. A further drop below $60,000.000 should also be expected.
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
“ItsDailyCrypto is not responsible for any activities you perform outside ItsDailyCrypto.”
Source: cointelegraph.com
