Stars align for Bitcoin rally to $100K, but futures traders exercise caution — Here’s why

The key takeaways

• BTC reached $97,900 on the back of soaring demand from institutional investors, but traders’ futures prices show they aren’t optimistic about a long-term rally.

• Even though spot BTC ETF flows of $3.6 Billion were positive, macroeconomic risks and international trade tensions dampened the bullishness.

• BTC Options are strongly bullish. This suggests that the big players have high expectations for BTC, however, their caution means they will not use much leverage.

BitcoinBTC( ) broke through a trading range that was tight between $93,000-$95,600 after six days of little or no movement. Although it reached its highest price for ten weeks, $97,930 according to, sentiment is neutral. BTC derivatives indicators. These price movements have occurred in conjunction with large net inflows of US dollar-denominated Bitcoin ETFs.

The ongoing influx of traders has contributed to some disappointment. global tariff dispute., is now beginning to impact macroeconomic statistics. Bitcoin traders worry that, even though institutional investors are showing an increasing interest in bitcoin, the fear of a recession may limit its price. This reduces BTC’s chances of reaching $110,000 by 2025.

Over the last week, the annualized premium of Bitcoin’s 2-month futures stayed between 6%-7%. This is within the neutral zone of 5%-10%. Comparing January to the month when Bitcoin’s price was near $95,000 with a futures premium above 10%, trader sentiment is weaker. The data indicates that traders are less optimistic, or more confident, about further price increases towards $100,000 and beyond.

Gold outperformed Bitcoin’s gains

Some investors are worried about the 20% increase in gold from $2,680 up to $3,220. Bitcoin’s recent market cap of $1.8 trillion has surpassed that of silver, but gold’s massive surge to $21.7 trillion is overshadowing this. Bitcoin is a concern for investors. strong correlation The stock market is no longer as appealing. “digital gold” narrative.

The $3.6 billion net inflows may also indicate that there is a potential for the inflows of funds to US spot ETFs The strategies that have driven the markets over the past couple of weeks were delta-neutral. The flows in this case are Bitcoin holders who have moved to listed products, or used derivatives as a hedge. In this scenario, there would only be a limited impact on Bitcoin price, consistent with the modest 5% increase in Bitcoin during that period.

It is useful to look at the Bitcoin price in relation to professional traders. BTC options market.

BTC Options 25% Delta Skew Metric is currently at its lowest since February 15th, indicating that whales or market makers assign higher odds for further upward movement from this point. It’s a stark reversal of three weeks earlier, when sell (put) options were trading at a premium.

Related: Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Bitcoin derivatives’ resilience favors further BTC price gains

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Bulls refrain from using leverage, while traders expect further gains in price. This could be argued to create the perfect conditions for a sudden rally.

Bitcoin’s performance continues to be influenced by the US-China commercial relationship. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. BTC derivatives may not be able to reach a new high, but they are slightly skewed in favor of bulls.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. This article is solely for informational purposes. It does not represent or reflect Cointelegraph’s views.