The Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which are based on Bitcoin, will likely post net outflows for a fourth month in a row.BTCThe upcoming month of February will be the fifth consecutive negative closing. Slowdowns are evident in shrinking funds and bearish net flow rolling data.
Bitcoin’s price has been trending downward since October and investors want to know what lies ahead for BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs dominate headlines
In October 2025 the net asset value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was near $170 Billion. It is now $84.3 Billion. Net cumulative inflows are down to $54 billion, compared with the all-time record of $63 billion. Cumulative net flows since July 2025 have been just $5 Billion, highlighting the steep drop in capital inflows.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked Net ETF withdrawals between February 12 and february 19 totaled 11,042 BTC. The largest reduction in a single day was 6,120 BTC or approximately $416 Million on February 12. In the sessions of February 17 and 18, there were consecutive outflows in excess of 1,980 BTC. Two sessions had positive results, the February 6 session bringing in 5,900 BTC.
Adler explained that for the ETFs to resume accumulating, three sessions of positive results are required. Up until that time, flows are continuing to provide supply for the markets.
Macroeconomic data are consistent with a cooling trend. Since November 2025 the ETFs has lost about 87,000 BTC, with roughly 15,000 BTC being shed in February. Total ETF holdings are now around 1.26 Million BTC. This is down from a peak of 1.36 Million BTC.
It has been determined that the selling pressure is coming from BTC’s largest funds. BlackRock IBIT’s holdings declined From 806,000 BTC to 759,000 BTC is a reduction of 6%. Fidelity FBTC fell to 186,000 BTC (down from 213,000 BTC), a decline of 12.6%.
The Bitcoin price fell much more than ETFs and the demand on the spot markets was not enough to absorb all the market pressure.
BTC and Gold ETFs compete for attention
Bitcoin ETFs and gold ETFs both have seen a significant increase in the past 2 years. rotated Leadership based on rolling 90-day flows. Inflows of Bitcoin over 90 days peaked at $16 billion around March 2024. They then cooled down to $3-4 billion from June to October and surged up to $21.6billion in December 2024.
The ETFs for gold took a very different course. The negative flows continued until July 2024. They then began to increase, reaching $30 billion by the end of April 2025. In March and April of 2025 the Bitcoin 90 day flows dropped to negative $2 Billion.
In October 2025 the gold price peaked at $36 Billion, and Bitcoin’s inflows dwindled into the last quarter. Gold flows peaked in January 2026 at $29 billion, before falling to just $21 billion mid-February. Bitcoin flow remained negative.
These data indicate a repeating handoff of the two assets. The period of declining Bitcoin ETF demand coincided with surges in inflows of gold, in particular between March and Octobre 2025.
In terms of relative capital, gold ETFs attracted additional investors as they favored the assets with lower price fluctuations and a longer track record in risk-off periods.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years
“Restrictive digestion” Bitcoin Demand Hits the Roof
ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen classifies First quarter 2026, as an example. “late-cycle restrictive digestion” The equities market and crypto markets are in a phase of transition.
US Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening since December 2025. The balance sheet run-off is halted, however, the monetary policies remain restrictive in relation to expectations of market growth. The federal funds rate still sits above the 2-year Treasury yield, while the 10-year yield trades near 4.1% and the 10-year real yield holds around 1.7%–1.8%, keeping the financial conditions tight.
Positive real yields allow investors to earn inflation-adjusted return in fixed income markets. This increases the cost of non-yielding investments such as Bitcoin.
Cowen stated that prior to tightening cycles Bitcoin’s price declined before equity markets showed signs of stress. BTC’s price in 2019 retreated months before the wider weakness of equities.
In the past, durable ETF flows have been correlated with falling real yields and a clear cycle of easing. Both conditions have not yet developed, and this may be the reason for the decline in demand of Bitcoin ETFs.
Related: Bitcoin ignores US Supreme Court Trump tariff strike amid talk of $150B refund
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Source: cointelegraph.com
