Santa Rally May Send Bitcoin Prices to $300K by X-Mas Day

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin has surpassed its long-term potential “power law” Curves historically lead to high prices in prior cycles.

• Bitcoin may be a big beneficiary from a wider risk-on rally caused by the falling dollar or anticipated Federal Reserve interest rates cuts.

• The spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to capture 70 percent of the inflows into gold by 2025.

BitcoinBTCAccording to an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, apsk32, Bitcoin has risen by 10 percent in July and reached new highs of $118,600. This could just be the beginning for a parabolic rally. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s value could reach as high as $258,000. 

Apsk32 reports that Bitcoin has followed the long-term trend of a power curvature, a model mathematically reflecting BTC’s exponential rise over time. The Power Law Time Contours approach measures the price variance from this trendline not only in dollars, but also in time units. 

The analyst explained Bitcoin’s power curve is about two years behind its current price, so if it remained flat for two more years, the trendline would not intersect again. Apsk32 said,

“We’re currently above 79% of the historical data using this metric. The top 20% is what I call “Extreme greed” These are the blow-off tops that come around every four years.”

It is important to note that the word “you” means “you”. “extreme greed” The zone ranges between $112,000 and $258,000. This is the same zone that was seen at Bitcoin’s peak in 2013, 2017 and 2021. The analyst suggested that “if the four-year pattern continues,” Bitcoin may reach between $200k and $300k by Christmas before its bullish momentum starts to fade in 2026. 

Satraj Bambra told Cointelegraph, the CEO of Rails perpetual trading platform, that two macroeconomic factors could push Bitcoin higher by 2025. Bambra said that an expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and a move toward lower rates under a new Fed leader, who may be responding to rising tariffs on economic growth, were key catalysts. These shifts, taken together, could spark a rally of risky assets. Bitcoin is likely to be one beneficiary.

Bambra pointed to the US Dollar Index dropping below 100 in a recent macro-pivot as an early sign of this. It suggests that rate cuts and new stimulus could be coming soon. The CEO stated that, against this background,

“I see Bitcoin going parabolic in the region of $300K–500K driven by two key forces.”

Related: Is the crypto market entering a new supercycle? Here are 5 ways to know

Bitcoin ETF surpasses gold on the risk-on rally

The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is gaining on gold. It has captured 70% of net year-todate inflows. Ecoinometrics. The strong recovery from the slow start in 2025 signals a growing interest by institutions and increased confidence that Bitcoin is a valid store of value.

Bitcoins remain a risk-on assetIt has a modest correlation with the Nasdaq over the last 12 months. This is consistent with the five-year mean. The low correlation of its performance with bonds and gold highlights the unique role it plays in a portfolio.

Jurrien Timmer’s, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, recently echoed that sentiment. remarked Bitcoin is the new leader. Timmer believes that the shrinking Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin compared to gold indicate BTC’s superiority in risk-adjusted return. Sharpe measures how much return is delivered by an asset for a given level of volatility, and compares it with the performance of a risk free benchmark.

This chart, which is based on the weekly data between 2018 and July 2025 shows that Bitcoin’s (1x), has closed in on Gold’s (4x), as shown below. According to relative performance, Bitcoin is now at $16,95, while gold has reached $20.34.

Related: Bitcoin $120K expectations add fuel to ETH, HYPE, UNI and SEI

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.