Santa Rally May Send Bitcoin Prices to $300k by X-Mas Day

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin has surpassed its long-term potential “power law” The curve has historically led to price peaks that were euphoric in past cycles.

• Bitcoin could be the major beneficiary of a risk-on rally triggered by a falling dollar, and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• The spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to capture 70 percent of gold’s inflows by 2025.

BitcoinBTCAccording to anonymous Bitcoin expert apsk32, the rally could only be the start of a massive parabolic rise. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s value could reach as high as $258,000. 

Apsk32 reports that Bitcoin has seen its price follow a long term power curve trendline. This is a model based on BTC’s exponential increase over time. The Power Law Time Contours approach measures the price variance from this trendline not only in dollars, but also in time units. 

The analyst explained Bitcoin is about 2 years ahead of the power curve. If the price was to remain flat, then it would be over 2 years before the long-term trends line crossed it. Apsk32 said,

“We’re currently above 79% of the historical data using this metric. The top 20% is what I call “Extreme greed” These are the blow-off tops that come around every four years.”

You can also find out more about the following: “extreme greed” The zone ranges between $112,000 and $258,000. This is the same zone that was seen at Bitcoin’s peak in 2013, 2017 and 2021. The analyst suggested that “if the four-year pattern continues,” Bitcoin’s price could reach $200,000 to $300,000 before Christmas 2026, when the bullish trend begins to fade. 

Satraj Bamra, CEO at perpetual trading platform Rails told Cointelegraph a few macroeconomic factors would likely drive Bitcoin to a significant increase in value by 2025. Bambra cited an expanded Federal Reserve balance and a shift toward lower interest rate, possibly under new Fed leadership in response to economic drag caused by rising tariffs as catalysts. These shifts, taken together, could spark a rally of risky assets. Bitcoin is likely to be one beneficiary.

Bambra pointed to the US Dollar Index dropping below 100 in a recent macro-pivot as an early sign of this. It suggests that rate cuts and additional stimulus could be on their way. In this context, CEO Michael A. Smith said:

“I see Bitcoin going parabolic in the region of $300K–500K driven by two key forces.”

Related: Is the crypto market entering a new supercycle? Here are 5 ways to know

Bitcoin ETF overtakes gold in risk-on rally

The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is gaining on gold. It has captured 70% of net year-todate inflows. Ecoinometrics. The strong recovery from the slow start in 2025 signals a growing interest by institutions and increased confidence that Bitcoin is a valid store of value.

Bitcoin is still a currency. risk-on assetThe Nasdaq has been correlated with it moderately over the past year, which is in line with the average of the previous five years. This is due to its low correlations with gold and bond markets.

Jurrien Timmer’s, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, was recently quoted as saying the same thing. remarked The baton is now back in the hands of Bitcoin. Timmer believes that the shrinking Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and gold indicate BTC’s superiority in risk-adjusted return. Sharpe measures how much return is delivered by an asset for the amount of risk it takes, and compares its performance with that of a benchmark risk-free adjusted for volatility.

Based on data collected weekly from July 2018 to July 2025 the chart shows how Bitcoin (1x) has been getting closer and closer to gold (4x). Gold is currently at $20.34 while Bitcoin’s value has increased to $16.95.

Related: Bitcoin $120K expectations add fuel to ETH, HYPE, UNI and SEI

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.