Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, says Bitcoin developers must swallow their pride in order to outline a plan that will harden the Blockchain against attacks by quantum computers. Charles Edwards says that the moment they bite the bullet and start to act, the bitcoin price will rise very rapidly.
“If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: ‘this is our roadmap, we’re gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards talks to Cointelegraph in regards to Trade Secrets.
“I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” Edwards says.
Bitcoiners are divided over whether developers of the Bitcoin network should make the cryptography more quantum resistant. Some argue that such changes would be in conflict with Bitcoin’s core values. Some argue that quantum computers will not be available for many years, so a hasty cure may even make the problem worse.
Charles Edwards: A clear roadmap may push prices up “very quickly”
Edwards warns his 132.800 followers about the dangers of quantum computing for Bitcoin. It is feared that powerful quantum computers will one day be able break the encryption that secures Bitcoin and possibly compromise Bitcoin wallets.
Analysts say that the uncertainty in Bitcoin has affected investor sentiment and contributed to its price decline. BlackRock, the largest asset management company in the world, recently pointed out that quantum computing could pose a long-term threat to spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
Edwards believes that if Bitcoin developers create a roadmap for addressing the quantum threat as other chains already have, this could drive Bitcoin’s value higher “very quickly.”
Source: Charles Edwards
“Double digits probably,” Edwards makes a prediction. The quantum issue, he adds is “somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential,” Bitcoin Improvement Proposals have been unfinished and are not being implemented. “not really” A genuine solution.
Edwards has a history of making bold predictions about Bitcoin. In 2019, Edwards founded Capriole Investments based in Melbourne, Australia. The hedge fund is focused on Bitcoins and digital assets. To guide the firm’s investment strategy, it uses quantitative models, AI and macroeconomic analyses.
Related: StarkWare CEO suggests 4% annual Bitcoin inflation to replace 21M cap
Charles Edwards claims that Bitcoin’s fair value is 40 percent below what it should be.
Increasingly, observers are concerned that the risks could be worse if Bitcoin developers do not make necessary network changes before 2030. Ethereum will complete its post-quantum revamp by 2029. The spotlight is now on Bitcoin as it prepares for this.
Bitcoin was trading for $65,270 as of the date of this publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Edwards claims that Bitcoin currently has a value that is roughly 40% less than what it would be worth if measured by energy. Quantum risk, he argues, accounts for the remaining 30%. “That means it’s more than priced in,” Edwards stated. Bitcoin was trading for $65,270 as of the publication date, which is roughly 49% lower than its all-time October highs of $126,100.
Edwards clarifies Bitcoin’s price today reflects quantum risk, based on information that is available now. It does not reflect any future unknown developments that may accelerate the danger and further depress the price.
The estimate was based on the timeframes set forth by quantum computing researchers and leading companies. “Q Day” Quantum computers could reach a point where they are powerful enough to decode private keys using public keys.
“That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years,” Edwards says.
Edwards said he considers the time Bitcoin needs to create and implement a new solution. BIP-360 writer Ethan Heilman estimated that it would take many years.
“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”
“That risk again falls significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company,” “He said”
“It’s priced in today, but it’s not to say that it can’t get worse or better. It’s just I think it’s skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here,” Edwards says.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma: Bigger blocks or STARK proofs?
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