Pantera Capital, by adhering to the Bitcoin halves cycle, was able to accurately predict Bitcoin’s price in 2022. This shows how an asset’s schedule of supply can affect valuations even when skepticism grows about cycles.
Pantera released a chart in November that year mapping Bitcoin (BTC( ) halves rallies, and shows diminishing returns at each four-year interval. The firm predicted that Bitcoin will reach $117.482 on Aug. 11th, 2025, based on the timing of market bottoms and subsequent post-halving rally.
According to Coin Metrics, data quoted by CNBC.
Pantera’s prediction stood out in a sea of Bitcoin predictions for its incredible accuracy. At the time of its original forecast, Bitcoin was headed toward a cycle low below $16,000 — a level it reached on Nov. 21, 2022, according to Bitbo.
Bitcoin now trades near $120,000. That’s a rise of more than 680% from the 2022 low.
The Bitcoin rally is a good example of the predictability of Bitcoin’s 4-year price cycles. They are aligned closely with Bitcoin’s halves and typically follow a pattern consisting of accumulating, rising, and descending after halving.
Bob Loukas, for example, uses cycle theory in order to chart Bitcoin’s highs & lows. Loukas correctly identified In January 2023, Bitcoin will have reached its lowest point in less than 2 months.
Related: Bitcoin ‘demand generation’ phase mirrors 2022 market bottom — Are new highs incoming?
Does institutional adoption alter the Bitcoin Cycle Narrative?
The reasons for Bitcoin’s halving are different each time. “this time is different” Why the four-year cycle pattern is destined to fade.
To their credit those who predicted the erosion have an excellent point. Bitcoin is now institutionalized with millions of BTC held by corporations and exchange traded funds.
The US Bitcoin ETFs will be available in the US from January 2024. most successful ETF debut in history. ETFs now hold 7.1% of Bitcoin’s supply — about 1.491 million BTC, according to Bitbo. Together, public and private companies account for 1,36 million BTC.
Jason Williams is an investor and author who believes that the rise in Bitcoin-treasury holding companies has been a major factor. “the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.”
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard agreed, noting: “Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
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Source: cointelegraph.com
