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Bond Markets Could Be Next to Send BTC Buy signals

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Bitcoin Price Resumes Upward Move — Can It Break New
Bitcoin Price Resumes Upward Move — Can It Break New

Takeaways from the conference:

  • Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms are historically in line with the bond market. This could be a sign of new opportunities to buy.

  • Bitcoin may be favored in Q4 due to the macroeconomic pressures caused by US debt above $37 trillion. 

Buy Bitcoins (BTC() could emerge prior to a rally that is strong in Q4. The bond markets may play an important role.

Alphractal’s founder has a few words to say Joao WedsonThe ICE BofA option-adjusted spread (OAS) is one of the best indicators. The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) measures how much extra return investors are willing to pay for risky corporate bonds compared with safe US Treasurys. OAS is a sign of fear on the credit market when it spikes. In the past, these stress points often signaled local lows in Bitcoin.

OAS is relatively quiet at the moment, which suggests that markets are not yet fully pricing in the next round of pressure. Credit spreads could widen, as they often do when liquidity is tightening, in the coming third quarter. This would set up another Bitcoin accumulation stage.

ICE BofA US high yield option-adjusted spread vs. BTC Price. Source: Joao Wedson/X

The macro-economic backdrop supports this. US debt is at its highest level since surged Beyond $37 trillion requires more than $2.6 billion In daily interest payments. Recent US credit downgrades reflect concern about this fiscal course. In the meantime, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is now at 4,3%. This has increased from 3,9% just a year before, which raises borrowing costs in the entire economy.

Wedson thinks that the combination of rising yields and fiscal pressure could shake up traditional markets. Bitcoin would benefit as an alternative investment. “An aggressive bear market will happen sooner or later,” Wedson stated. “But before it occurs, euphoria is the most likely scenario. I believe much of 2026 and onward will be very bad for the US economy.”

Related: Bitcoin price rising wedge breakdown: How low can BTC go?

Whales warn of deeper declines in Bitcoin prices after Strategy purchases $54 Million

Strategy’s purchase of Bitcoin on Sunday shows the demand from institutions for Bitcoin to be steady. The company acquired The average coin price is $119.666. This brings the total holdings to 629,376 BTC. Its total assets now stand at 629,376 BTC. 

Onchain data indicates that Bitcoin’s biggest holders are increasingly selling their Bitcoins. Cointelegraph reported The number of addresses with more than 10,000 BTC is at its lowest since 2025. This trend has been negative for 30 days, and it’s only mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range have declined, suggesting profit-taking after recent highs.

Adding to market volatility, nearly 32,000 dormant BTC (3–5 years old), worth about $3.78 billion, was moved in a single transfer, the largest shift from this age band in over a year.

These signals indicate that, while the institutional buyer continues to accumulate stocks, the broader whale movement and a revived supply of dormant stock may cause short-term price corrections. This will keep volatility high.

Related: Dip buyers ‘stopped the train,’ 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.