Tony Chartered Market Technician CMT “The Bull” Severino argues that Bitcoin’s most dependable macro tell—the copper-to-gold ratio—has broken character at the very moment the market typically enters a parabolic phase, leaving the post-halving script in disarray and altcoins without their usual rotation.
What is the Copper/Gold ratio for Bitcoin?
A 16-minute drive video Severino’s analysis, published in the November 10 edition of The New York Times, frames the copper/gold as a ratio. “growth versus fear index,” Gold outperformance correlates with recession, declining yields, and risk off behavior, whereas copper strength indicates expansion, rising rates and appetite for risks.
“When gold is performing better than copper, it typically means economic slowdown [and] general recession fears,” He added that the industrial demand for copper anchors this ratio. the business cycle. The joke is that the ratio’s historical cyclical shift, which coincided with Bitcoin’s vertical phase, simply did not occur. “They say the most dangerous thing to say in investing is that this time is different. Well, this time is different,” Severino said. “The business cycle based on the copper versus gold ratio did not turn back up.”
Severino argues that the four year halving lore, at best incomplete or at worst incorrectly attributed. He overlays previous halving dates. Fisher Transform signal On the Copper/Gold Ratio and observes the true inflection was historically macro, rather than supply-driven. “I never really thought it was the halving,” “He said” “The same halving date started a bull run in the Nasdaq […] the halving in Bitcoin would not really have any effect on tech stocks.” According to his theory, halving the Bitcoin price coincides with the upswing of the Bitcoin ratio, and the risk-on sentiment that propels Bitcoin past previous highs, into the final parabolic phase.
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The cycle diverged. This cycle diverged. “higher high” in the ratio—the first since roughly 2010—copper/gold failed to establish a higher low and instead printed “another lower low,” marking, in Severino’s words, the lowest reading in about 15 years on his chart—”since pretty much since the Great Recession.”
Fisher Transform, which had traditionally been flipped to confirm that the window was open for risk taking, never provided the complete follow-through. “It was supposed to send Bitcoin into the final stage of its parabolic rally […] we didn’t go parabolic after going above all-time high. We’re just kind of meandering sideways.”
What is the Bitcoin Cycle?
This failure is important in terms of timing. Severino calculates the time between the ratio’s go signal and Bitcoin’s peak cycle in past episodes. Using that yardstick “we really should have topped” If anchored on the breakout in March above the high of 2021, we would be at the very least entering the risk-off period. The cycle milestones will blur without the risk-on signal. “Because we didn’t get the full risk on, I don’t know where the risk off signal is,” “He said”
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This has implications for altcoins as well as Bitcoin dominance. The ratio has been green historically “risk-on” The “phase” of the phase line up.alt seasonThis time around, however, it never happened. “You normally get your alt season at these green points […] We didn’t get it here,” Severino stated that Bitcoin dominance was a key factor in supporting higher-timeframe viewpoints. He highlights the importance of an “extremely strong negative correlation” In the past, there was a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and its copper/gold ratio. “None of the conditions for altcoin season seem to be here based on past economic signals,” He also added.
Severino refrains from making a deterministic decision. The ratio’s trend structure is ambiguous—one failed breakout from a long downtrend does not make an uptrend—and the Fisher signal could still turn. He argues that macro caution is advised until the ratio turns.
“We’re still in the fear sort of side of this ratio. We need to still be defensive and we should be risk off. When this starts to turn back up, we can consider being bullish risk assets again.” He suggests that this ambiguity is the reason why Bitcoin’s post-ATH decline has defied a well-worn narrative of four years: “It just didn’t do the same thing as it did in the past […] We are different. It is genuinely different this time.”
BTC was trading at $104,486 as of the time this article went to press.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
