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The Bitcoin market appears to be coiling for a major move, according to prominent crypto analyst CrediBull Crypto (@CredibleCrypto), who highlighted today via X that over 80% of all Bitcoin in existence is currently being held by long-term investors—levels of supply constraint previously seen only at major inflection points in Bitcoin’s price history.
Why Bitcoin Is Not Being Sold
CrediBull pointed out in his posting that “The only 2 times in Bitcoin’s 15 year history that this % was higher was at 43k before a $30,000 impulse to 73k and at 58k before a $50,000 impulse to 105k+.” Citing this precedent, he said that the markets are poised for a massive upswing. “When the majority of $BTC total circulating supply is cornered by ‘diamond hands’, price moves up aggressively at the hint of any ‘new’ demand.”
The following are some alternatives to the word “Advantage” “excess” The analyst is seeing a clear message: “The next impulse IS IMMINENT. This next one will also likely be even bigger than the last two ($50,000+). Who’s ready for 150k+ Bitcoin?”
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An optimism that is based on technical principles cannot be dismissed. CrediBull has addressed in an earlier post the current market structures and his Elliott Wave based scenario plans: “My original count/idea shared a few days ago had us rejecting at range highs above 110k and seeing a pullback down to the BLUE zone at 102k-ish before moving sideways for a few more weeks before the next impulse begins.”Analysts acknowledged that a second possibility was also possible: “I think that this scenario will happen, but I am aware that it is not impossible that the current impulse has begun already (most likely). bullish scenario depicted).”
CrediBull stated that, given the current price structure and action, the risk/reward profile does not favor bearish positions. “In either case, downside is relatively limited on Bitcoin from current levels imo and so focus should be on identifying potential long opps on Bitcoin rather than looking to short clear strength.”
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He punctuated his point with an insult: “Why is it now illegal to short Bitcoin? Because there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun.”
Axel Adler Jr. added a technical confirmation layer by adding a signal from the volatility metrics. Adler pointed out a major Bollinger Bands squeeze underway, writing: “The range between the upper and lower boundaries has fallen to 7.7%—one of the lowest values throughout the entire bull cycle.”
Historically, such compressions of volatility precede major directional changes. Adler explained, “The decrease in volatility indicates energy accumulation in the market; the price is ready for a rally, and in an upward trend environment, the chances of an upward breakout are significantly higher.”
Adler identified six such episodes in the current cycle. The four episodes were followed immediately by a strong price increase, and the two remaining episodes saw a brief correction before moving upward. What to take away: “Based on this experience, the current squeeze most likely foreshadows another upward impulse, although a small consolidation before the move is also not ruled out.”
Bullish technical compression is in effect as long-term investors now control a majority of the supply. institutional adoption CrediBull explains that the environment described by CrediBull echoes moments in history when there was explosive upward movement. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s next chapter may already be beginning—quietly, beneath the surface.
BTC is currently trading for $108,738.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
